Super Sunday

There are very few weeks that pass by that my dad doesn’t ask me what teams and matches to bet on. He usually rattles off the 7-team accumulator he has put a cheeky quid on, and I’ll tell him that makes no sense or gives no value, and he usually ignores me. He asked me on Monday for a Superbowl bet, so he’s going to have to read this blog if he wants a prediction of mine to ignore!

I’m sure the term has been coined years previously but when Sky used ‘Super Sunday’ to describe their football schedule when the Premier League first started, they were on to something. Not the most complex of phrases to come up, but it was just one of those simple phrases that just worked.

So, I’m sat scribbling this blog right now, with Murray v Djokovic on the ipad on SkyGo, I have the England v Australia cricket on the laptop, and I’m watching UFC from last night as live. There’s two reasonable football matches on in the afternoon, though I am already predicting that Southampton v Swansea may be the optimal time for a cheeky afternoon nap. The day is then capped by the Superbowl tonight…..it doesn’t get any more super I guess. Well, I could be driving from Vegas for the UFC to Phoenix….that could be make it a fraction more super, but I’m saving my silliness for later in the year despite the encouragement of a lot of bad bad people.

I’ve been known to attend a sporting event or two in my time, and I’d really struggle to rank them the different types of events in terms of preference. That may be another blog post. Whether it’s the Olympics, the World Cup, or the biggest fight of all time (it’s always the next one basically!), they’re all great in their own way. The Superbowl is right at the very top of the list.

I’ve asked folks for their prediction for the game and this one just seems to be as close to call as any Superbowl I can recall. It is quite rare to get the top two ranked teams playing the Superbowl which is the case this time. Even the bookies are calling this one incredibly close.

27-24 Patriots

24-7 Patriots

23-19 Seahawks

27-20 Patriots

24-17 Seahawks

23-17 Patriots

17-14 Seahawks

24-10 Patriots

24-16 Patriots

27-9 Seahawks

24-17 Seattle

27-21 Seahawks

27-24 Seahawks

13 picks from a bunch of friends, 7-6 Patriots and 2 picks over 48, 1 on 48 and 10 under 48.

Six weeks ago, I placed a bet on Seattle to win the whole show. I’ve since laid it off. How do I see this game going? When looking at NFL matches, my first thought is to analyse the attacking and defensive strengths and weaknesses of both teams, and how I see them measuring up to each other. And parts of this game are quite logical. Seattle have the best defence of the two (and the league), and the Patriots have the best offense of the two (and the league). When you have elite defence against an elite offense in any sport, I generally edge the elite defence – it’s often easier to destroy than create.

If we look at the other side of it, the Seattle offense against the Patriots defence is an interesting one and where this game could be decided. Seattle’s offense is underrated at times and I love how Wilson can make something from nothing. Lynch is as tough a runner as they come. I do think they have their struggles in terms of receivers despite the Green Bay miracle in the conference game.

The Patriots defence is not as good as the Seahawks, but it is as good as they have had for several years now. They started the season poorly but have gradually improved since Browner came in at week 5, and unlike last year when they lost Aqib Talib in the Conference final, they have a fully fit group of players which is key. This Patriots D can stop the run with their mobile linebackers, and rely on their secondary to stop the Seahawks receivers. Measuring these two up is where I think the Patriots have a greater advantage than the Hawks D v the Pats offense.

Both teams have as strong a home advantage when they play in their own stadiums whether it is the noise in Seattle or the cold in Foxboro – I do not see either team having an advantage in Arizona. The timezone factor is not a major issue here – the Patriots have had sufficiently long enough to acclimatise to it. (That said, there have been some naughty fire alarms going off twice in the middle of the night in the Patriots team hotel this week).

All that mumble jumble to say that I have no clue really who is going to win this one – I slightly edge the Patriots (24-20), but this will come down to small details and moments. I sincerely hope that this game is better than last year’s blowout. I sat in some random bar at silly o’clock in Antwerp watching the game, being thoroughly disappointed for the spectacle, but appreciating a superb performance. I do not see either team hammering the other here so I’m hopeful of that at the very least. I will not be having a cheeky bet on either side for this one, but there is one that I do like. I like the under 48 here. Neither of the teams are particularly strong at creating big plays of 20 yards or more. Special teams are well drilled and I do not see many big plays there. I don’t see that many turnovers by either quarterback or team. I do see both teams managing the clock, Seattle running plenty and Brady throwing plenty of short passes as he has all season, and eating up the clock.

Unders may not sound great for a Super Sunday, but that will not make it a bad game. It may not be the most high scoring or entertaining of games but it will be tense, physical and probably a survival of fittest/bravest. This is going to sound elitist, but there is nothing better in any sport, if there are two individuals or teams competing at the top. Iron sharpens iron as they say, and that’s what makes for a Super Sunday and Super Superbowl.

Sportingly Random

I was hoping that this blog would get written a couple of weeks ago, but I’ve since learning that blog posts don’t write themselves. My first in August…I am officially a disgrace. A couple of my favourite sports writers, Steve Kim of Maxboxing and Peter King of SI, write some of their thoughts in brief flurries and bullet points….and I like it. Sometimes better than just read long sentences, simple as that. Here goes with some of my random thoughts on sport.

I think that the cancellation of UFC 151 is a dark day for MMA. In a nutshell, the challenger in the title fight got injured, the Champion refused to face another guy put forward, and the UFC cancelled the show. I would have been fuming if I was attending and had flights and hotel booked. Fortunately, that cancellation means Jon Jones is going to fight on the Toronto card in September that I may just be going to. Despite any good fortune for me, I am going to boo him. If you want to read more about it, this is the best balanced piece I have read on it all.

I think that Fernando Torres is going to have a fantastic season. Chelsea will play to his style and strengths now Drogba and Anelka are out of the way, and I think it will pay dividends.

I think that I am not late in predicting anything NFL with the season starting in one week. I find predicting a Superbowl winner to be pretty tough as so much is dependent on injuries in this sport, but my tip for surprising outsiders? The Kansas City Chiefs.

I think that sadly, as much as people have made an effort to publicise and promote the Paralympics, very few people will realise it is happening on their doorsteps. Hopefully a couple of British stars will somehow emerge and that will just spark some interest.

I think that if you were not aware, the Football Association have spent £120m on a brand new National Football Centre in Burton-upon-Trent….and it looks amazing. Whether it proves to be a success however depends on the people, the processes and the mentality…..and there is plenty of room for improvement in those areas.

I think that the last few days of the transfer window are going to be frenetic in England. The Euros delayed the market kicking off, but it is in full swing. I am expecting two more Everton signings to put a smile on my face….and yes, I’ll be pressing refresh on my phone from Paris on Friday night and racking up my mobile phone bill.

I think I will be pretty annoyed if the NHL and the players do not resolve their issues and get this season going. Nothing good is going to come of it aside from some dollars being shifted in one direction from the other. Disillusionment among the fans is the most likely outcome, and particularly in those cities where they struggle for support as it is. Sort it out.

I think that Falcao is the best striker in world football right now. It is a matter of time before he moves (I heard he was linked with Chelsea today), and I would love to see him playing in England. If only Arsene Wenger and Arsenal would splash £40m on a player.

Neck on the Line

It is that time of year when I am prepared to put my neck on the line and make some outrageous sporting predictions for 2012. I think I did it a month earlier last year – but it has been a hectic start to the year with the launch of a new project that I am working on. And that new project is related to the subject of this blog and making predictions, and collecting and analysing data and events in sport (largely football). The company is called Onside Analysis (www.onsideanalysis.com) and I am working with a former Smartodds colleague, Dave Hastie…..exciting times but plenty of hard work ahead. A small part of the website and work is blogging, so I will be splitting my time between blogging for the Onside Analysis website, and Random Writing, but fear not, I shall continue to blog on here for all two of my loyal readers.

So without further ado, here goes with my thoughts and predictions for the year ahead.

Euro 2012 – I am not particularly throwing a huge outsider into the mix with this one, but I strongly like Germany to win the Euro this time round. At 100% fitness and form, I would go with Spain every time, but that is not going to happen. I cannot help but feel that Barca’s success in recent seasons is taking its toll on them and in turn on the national team. David Villa is already ruled out, and there are serious concerns over Xavi. He will be used sparingly between now and then with Guardiola preserving him for Champions League games now that the league race is pretty much over. Form is another issue – Fernando Torres. Don’t think I need to say much more. I could throw discipline and Gerard Pique out there right now, but that will resolve itself. The number of Clasicos could also bite them in the butt. On the flipside, the Germans are a hungry young team with plenty to prove, and for the first time in a long time, possessing some serious flair in the side.

Boxing – The world awaits for Floyd and Manny to get it on. I thought we were close for this May, but dreams were dashed once again. Well, Floyd is going to prison that is one thing that is certain. Beforehand, he faces Miguel Cotto in May and I think he will outclass him easily enough. Manny is up against Timothy Bradley and I have a feeling that Bradley is going to surprise him and dash any hopes of the dream fight somewhere down the line. Mayweather will continue to fight, continue to get $20m+ per fight even when he gets out of the nick, and will eventually retire unbeaten.

Stanley Cup – I would love nothing more than to see a NY Rangers or a San Jose get to the Stanley Cup Finals but I am going with the tried and trusted. This is something of a filthy prediction but this is going Boston/Detroit in my mind. I am hoping the Sens or the Leafs can keep hold of their playoff spots – and then I’ll be betting against both of them when they get there!

Premier League – I think this is going to go all the way to the wire, or at least the third to last game of the season when City host United. I think Man Utd have won the league in the last couple of seasons by being the best of the worst – I think this time they fall just short to City. The fixtures possibly just favour Man Utd, but I think it comes down to that one game, and I can see City edging it. I think Utd take the Europa League.

London 2012 – No specific predictions here apart from I recall from Vancouver how much pressure the Canadian athletes felt particularly at the start of the competition. Expectations were high, and media attention was huge – an early medal will calm everybody and the sooner it happens for a British athlete in London, the better it will be for all. I am not confident expectations will be met however.

Champions League – The Special One has imprinted his style on Real Madrid and he has the squad and lead in the league to focus on their bid for their 10th Champions League trophy. This could be quite an open UCL season and it would not surprise me if one of the Italian teams went far this season. I do however just see Barca falling short this time. Bayern may also come close for this one, but I’m edging Real as they are finally playing the way Jose wants them to and they are looking strong.

FA Cup – It pains me to say this and this is filthier than my Stanley Cup prediction but I can see a Cup double for the team that plays in Red on Merseyside. I am super excited about my team’s chances, but losing Landon Donovan and with Steven Pienaar being cup-tied, we lose a huge amount of creativity, and I think we will find it tough against Sunderland. I hope and pray that I am wrong, but I can see ‘them’ winning it this year.

UFC – Not easy making predictions too far in advance for the UFC such is the nature of the sport, but the fight I am most looking forward to is Anderson Silva v Chael Sonnen which is scheduled for June 16th in Brazil. I think Anderson finishes him early this time round. UFC 146 at the end of May also has a peach of a fight – Alistair Overeem v Junior dos Santos…..it will be immense. I give Junior the edge here as I question Overeem’s character in and outside the Octagon.

I think I need a shower after some of those picks.

The Blind Side

Humans are interesting. The things we do, the things we say, the things we choose. The things we don’t do, the things we keep quiet about, the things we choose not to do. The human mind fascinates me. With so many aspects in my life, I try to understand the reasoning behind things. This often leads to over-thinking things far too much. This is a positive as well as a negative, depending on the occasion and instance.

I wonder to what extent other people think as much as I do. The reason why I don’t sleep as well as I should is because I think too much. I have no issues going to sleep, but I wake up thinking about all the things I want to do the next day, and then I go back to sleep. Then I wake, and think some more. It is not a case of worrying about things. I do not worry about much, and if I do, then I am intent on doing something about it. But I think about what challenges and ideas I have, and how I can get wheels in motion. It goes back to when I was a child and I had very random sleeping experiences where I would sit up and talk in my sleep. It was usually a discussion around how a piece of Lego may or may not fit in my bedroom. We all have random quirks, and sleep is one of mine.

I wonder what makes me like Boxing and UFC. There is nothing in my childhood that explains why I enjoy seeing blokes in tight shorts beat each other up. I love watching it, it fascinates me, but at the same time, it does make me grimace on occasion. Some may find that strange, and I can accept that. I attended a UFC event in December with three good chaps who had never been to one previously. It was all going swimmingly well, with entertaining fights, but nothing too brutal, until one fighter’s arm snapped. Possibly not some people’s cup of tea I suspect. Some people take enjoyment from other people’s misfortunes or problems; I enjoy watching UFC and Boxing.

Watching is one thing but why do people actually become UFC fighters? What makes somebody decide to become a UFC fighter? There was an interesting dispute recently between ESPN and the UFC. ESPN were questioning the UFC and how they pay their fighters. Did you ever wonder how much a guy gets to fight in the UFC? They release the basic payments per fight with some of the top guys getting $250k per fight, and others getting as little as $4k-6k per fight. ESPN’s argument was somewhat flawed, but still, it does not hide from the fact that some guys will struggle to make $20k per year fighting. On the flipside, if you win or entertain fans, you get paid a fair bit more. I love watching it, but I find it hard to understand how some of them can fight for so little money. Though they probably cannot understand why I do what I do.

I read an interesting article today about boxing and how the sport desperately needs the star fighters to fight more often – currently Pacquiao fights twice a year and Mayweather once per year. My take on it is that the fighters themselves have a greater awareness of the risks involved and they too probably think long and hard about themselves and their careers. Easy advice to offer telling them to fight more, but the issue with those guys is that they get paid so much, they do not need to. Sadly, the guy making $4k per fight, has not option. Even tougher when they are probably equally aware of the dangers of their profession, but need to earn a living.

At what point do we decide to stop thinking? I am not sure. I can do it most of the time, but certainly there are things which linger in my mind. Working from home, I have a lot of time to think about things. If I overthink everything little thing, particularly the negatives, I would lead a pretty sad and miserable life. Thankfully I can often move on after the occasional sulk and slot them in the mind’s filing cabinet.

Last night I watched The Blind Side. It has to rate as one of my favourite sporting movies and definitely one of those feel good movies that I thoroughly enjoyed. I only realised at the very end of the movie that I was sat watching the very same Michael Oher a week ago when my Patriots were beating the Ravens. I had no idea about his story. I guess we all have stories. Some are more interesting than others, but we all have them and I enjoy hearing, listening, watching and reading about them. You can bet your life that the UFC fighters and Boxers that I watch have plenty of interesting stories too.

I like to think that I put a lot of time and effort into my relationships with friends and family, but sometimes I tell myself I should put more into certain relationships. Other times, I do not always feel like it is completely appreciated or returned. Watching that movie, it just reminded me that you can get so much pleasure and satisfaction out of what you put into other people….it is not always what you get back from them. And if you do not get anything back, they do not have that feeling of contributing to other lives. Their loss. A case of sticking to your beliefs and try doing the right thing regardless of what others do or think.

If you haven’t seen it, watch The Blind Side. Cheesy as this blog, but a great movie.

Sleep is Overrated

As I sat in the O2 arena on Friday night, it crossed my mind for the first time that it may be time to seek help. We all do crazy and random things occasionally, some more than others, but it is often when we reflect on them, that we delve deeper into the reasons why we did them or why we do them.

Last week was a hectic week. Great fun, plenty of travel, a thousand laughs, the occasional uncomfortable moment or two, a bit of sun, a lot of rain, some new faces, some old faces. All combined make some great moments. Even the bad moments, they all contribute to memories. The secret is trying to have some great memories and trying to ensure the great ones outweigh the tough ones, and not letting the tough ones weigh more heavily on one’s mind than the ten amazing ones. So, when I was bent over a Toronto toilet last weekend, producing the goods from my stomach, it was not exactly a moment I hoped would stick in my memory for too long. Note to self: several beers and car rides are not a good combo for sensitive Bobby. They never have been and they never will. Walk Bobby, walk. Hardly a proud moment but we move on.

Fast forward to Friday night and I find myself sat in the fantastic O2 Arena in London watching an old favourite of mine. Barry and I go a long way back. Back to the old days when Auntie Joan and Uncle George used to take my sister and I on these great long road trips to Primrose Valley and Filey. Thankfully I had not been introduced to alcohol at that point, or my love for Barry may not have developed so positively.

Friday night was fantastic. There is absolutely nothing like singing at the top of your voice, no matter how bad a singer you are, and just not having a care in the world apart from that very moment. Whether it be in the O2, in the shower, or in the car, there is something very cleansing about it, even if it is Barry. So, to give you a taste of Barry, I strongly recommend you click here and enjoy this song – bare with me. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5IifdSv9Gk

Rewinding back to midweek and I found myself in Barcelona. I have been to one Clasico before – Figo’s return in white. While this was not quite the best game I have ever seen, it was a fantastic occasion and what better way to get absolutely drenched in a downpour than to be sat in the Camp Nou enjoying one of the greatest teams in the history of football. That may seem like a slight exaggeration, but I cannot think there has ever been anything better than this Barca team, and this Lionel Messi and I doubt anybody could genuinely oppose that. My man of the match was Lassana Diarra – amazing display for Real, and I was amazed once again by the midfield duo of Iniesta and Xavi. Everybody talks about their play on the ball which is special, but their work rate as that of the team itself, is often underrated as they work so hard to win the ball back. A different world to the O2, but an absolute pleasure to watch. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIw-J60gsZM&feature=channel_video_title

Rewinding further back to Toronto and UFC 129 – the first ever Mixed Martial Art event in Ontario and 55,000 fans came out to visit – some further than others. An amazing event, even when one is struggling with a hangover. We visited the Expo on the Friday and enjoyed a fantastic Q&A with Dana White – the UFC president. Fans could ask a question to the Dana, followed by any request they would like, and Dana would do his best to make that come true. Requests ranged from tickets, to sitting with the ring girls, to putting the belt on the champion, and Dana did his utmost to make them reality. What sporting organisation or federation in the world does that? I am unaware of any and that is what puts the UFC at the top of the chain as far as interaction with their fans goes and many could learn from this. A slight contrast to Barca and Barry, but an absolutely fantastic event but for different reasons. The highlight of the event for me was the gutsiest display I have seen in a long time from Mark Hominick, who will now have more fans after this fight than he did prior to it. This one is neither for the feint hearted, nor those with a queasy stomach from a hangover but here goes. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YROSBBBlDE4

I sincerely hope you watched all three videos. It will give you a clearer idea of why I was sat watching Barry on Friday night, wondering what exactly was wrong with me. Maybe there is a reasonable crossover of fans between football and UFC, but throwing Barry into the mix, in the space of a week, has psychologist written all over it. I guess we cannot help how we are, and how we are made up, and there is not always a reasonable explanation for any of it. Probably best just to enjoy it all, even the less glamorous moments in the bathroom, keep smiling and store the moments in the memory bank.

The $64 Million Dollar Question

A friend of mine put me in an awful quandary this weekend just gone. He asked me a question – the kind of question no man should be subjected to. It is Bon Jovi’s last concert ever….in New Jersey. It just so happens that on the same night, it is the last UFC ever also, the Brock Lesnar v Cain Velasquez rematch fight. Neither will happen ever again. No more Bon Jovi, no more UFC. There are millions of Bon Jovi fans out there, most of which deny or refuse to admit it. You know who you are. As one of the fast growing sports in the world, the UFC is becoming a hugely successful sport. They do not really combine however, I am possibly the only person on the planet to love both of them. They both start at the same time, and they are held in different continents. It wasn’t mentioned, but I suppose the UFC were banned from showing that last one on PPV also. Which do I decide?

I go for the UFC. I have seen plenty of both of them, but I have all the Bon Jovi CD’s just as I have most of the UFC fights on DVD also. The one difference is that you never know what is going to happen in a UFC fight. I know how a Bon Jovi concert is going to go and that is part of the reason why I enjoy them so much. There are other bands I enjoy, while the UFC would leave a fairly major gap for me. It is a tough call but I edge UFC in this instance.

Awful question, but it got me randomly thinking. I think one of the things I enjoy most about the UFC is the unpredictability of the outcome. It is far more unpredictable than Boxing for example. We have a running joke in our household as I describe every fight that is coming up as the best fight in years somehow ignoring the fact that I said it last month, or last week in some instances. I consider myself to be a half full kind of guy rather than half empty, but this is a different concept.

One of the things which I constantly search for in life is potential. In so many different aspects of everyday life, I am analysing things and trying to work out the potential of something. Potential is different to the half full principle – I am not hoping something may work out, I am weighing everything up and deciding whether something is worth pursuing and putting effort into to reach the end goal.

My approach to so many UFC events is excitement. I am excited for the unpredictability and the potential of some great fights – entertainment-wise and technically. The UFC ten days ago fulfilled all of that and more, and while my analysis of the fights was grossly incorrect, I was right in my feel that the potential of this event was huge.

Work and business is a prime example. I am always thinking of ways to develop myself. Ideas that may just work and require time and effort to develop. Some do, and some do not. I am fortunate enough to have a talented partner in crime who I can bounce ideas off and help me further understand the potential of an idea or thought. I can have all the thoughts in the world, but similar to betting, absorb different opinions and views, and then make the decisions. Potential is exciting. Just like a bet though, just because there is potential in something, it may not always be the right decision to go for it. I have millions of ideas coming into my head all the time, not all of them turn out to be worth pursuing or of any value, but I give them all consideration, analyse the potential and pursue or discard as appropriate.

Potential can manifest itself in many different ways. I saw potential in my cousin’s son being an Evertonian despite pretending to support Manchester United and Cristiano Ronaldo. One trip to Wembley and a Marouane Fellaini wig later, and he was converted to a blue. Perhaps that one is somewhat tenuous but I’m grabbing on to it.

Football and sport is one area which I keenly follow potential. I love nothing more than to follow young talented players and see their development. It is certainly an area which I plan to become more involved with in the future, as well as coaching. I have a good relationship with Ray Hall at the Everton Academy – I know just how proud he is when one of his Academy players makes the breakthrough to the first team. It must be a huge buzz to see a Wayne Rooney or Jack Rodwell come through the ranks and become a major star.

I guess a key element in all things potential is the ability to envision the future and forward think. Unquestionably there will always be factors along the way which can affect the development of some potential, but if harnessed in the right way and with a large spoonful of hard work, passion and dedication, that potential has every chance of succeeding. Some ideas are just not meant to happen, some players just do not get the lucky breaks they deserve, and some cousins may not have an Uncle Rob to take them to Everton games, but giving potential a shot can do no harm.

I have taken a couple of risks/chances in recent years by leaving excellent jobs. Following which, I have had a number of ideas and projects which I have worked on. I am not the only one. There seem to be a number of people I know who have done something similar and decided to take the plunge. It may seem ridiculous to some in this economy, but I think it is all about realising the potential of one’s ideas and abilities. Now, if you do not have the ideas and abilities, then you’re in a tricky situation. However, I genuinely believe that so many people I know have the potential to be successful and to make their own way through life. Inevitably there is a degree of risk in anything like this that the potential will not grow into existence, but one thing is for sure – it won’t if you leave it sat on the shelf.

A Hard Day's Night

I am an absolute sucker for stories like these. So much so that I am going to share them. I absolutely love my Boxing and MMA, and when I am caught up in watching these guys put their health and bodies on the line, it is easy to forget that they are normal people. Normal people who have the same hardships as so many others. One is a story about a fighter struggling to make ends meet. Another is about a boxer whose wife has been fighting for her life. I have such admiration for these guys.

http://sports.yahoo.com/box/news;_ylt=AnxErNSF5THKW6aJQnLf1oiUxLYF?slug=ki-guerrero072210

http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/news;_ylt=AiIkODNrsWBHdW.EVnw_6jU9Eo14?slug=ki-volkmann072210

I'll also praise Kevin Iole. Easily my favourite journalist who covers Boxing and UFC. Superb pieces and I thoroughly enjoyed reading both of them.

These are the kind of stories that keep everything in perspective.