Random Sporting Thoughts

I failed for the first time this year on producing a New Year’s blog making sporting predictions for the year ahead. After essentially promising Floyd and Manny would fight for the last 15 years (it feels that long), I can officially confirm that they agreed to fight this year purely because they didn’t feel the weight of expectation based on my annual blog. We may be a few months into the year, but still plenty to predict and look forward to…..and I have to write another blog for work tomorrow which I have to nail, so I need to get back into this writing business!

Manny & Floyd

We may as well start at the start. I am giddy. I have been known to get giddy about the biggest fight ever numerous times (for numerous read monthly) in the past. This is it though. This is as big as they come. So how do it see it? For once, I am sticking with my initial thought that Floyd wins on points. It is so easy to get caught up in these fights and the hype and go back and forth on them, and I have had thoughts that Manny’s workrate is too much for Floyd. However, I still just have to go for Floyd. Defence is impeccable, he’ll land with enough straight rights and his accuracy percentages will be way way higher. Manny will land more punches, but I’m dubious about how many quality shots he will land. So much will depend on the judges, but if it comes to that which I am pretty sure it will, Floyd will get any favours. It’s one of the reasons they are fighting in Vegas. Floyd on points.

Josh Warrington

You may not know the name but he’s fighting tonight at the First Direct Arena in Leeds. He’s a hometown boy, went to the same school as me, and he is good. You’ll only know him if you’re from Leeds or love Boxing, but remember the name.

Barca or Bayern?

Those two are my picks to go all the way in the Champions League this season, and I am slightly edging Barca. I do think Paris (you may still say PSG, but they actually asked UEFA to change their short name for branding purposes) could test them but I favour Barca to get a good enough result at home while Paris are without some key players in David Luiz, Thiago Motta, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Marco Verratti and that may be a little too much to overcome.

Why Barca over Bayern? Super tough call and little to separate them. I just edge Barca because I think they have the greater individual attacking brilliance to turn a tight game, I think Rakitic has adapted so well and come strong in the last couple of months that they have recaptured their best form, and I just think Barca are tested at the highest level a little more often than Bayern domestically which may give them a marginal edge.

My only hope is that they avoid each other until the final.

Rugby League Rule Change

Saw plenty of NRL the last week which was thoroughly enjoyable. A definite upgrade in intensity from Super League, and fierce competition. The Bulldogs versus the Rabbitohs was a quality match, but there was an interesting moment when a player was forced off through a bad injury which came from a naughty knee to the head. Not pleasant. In those circumstances where a team loses a player through injury due to foul play (could be a penalty or if the referee puts a player on report), the team on the receiving end should be able to use an additional player outside of the four replacements they have on the bench. Seems harsh to penalise a team due to foul play. This goes across multiple sports, but a general frustration of mine for so much punishment that goes on in sport, is that it rarely does not benefit the team that the crimes were committed against in that specific game – it’s the team(s) their opponents play next. #rantover

A Sucker For Stories

Today at 6.30pm UK time the Ottawa Senators will play in Philadelphia in the NHL. The Sens need a point to reach the play-offs. In their last 30 matches, they have won 22, picked up a point in 4, and only lost 4 of those games – an unbelievable run and if they do manage to do it today, it will be a story in itself. The Sens General Manager is a chap called Bryan Murray – he’s been there since 2005. In November, it was announced that he has colon cancer – stage 4 meaning it has no cure, and his deterioration has visibly shown in the last few months. He’s one of those older chaps who you see and listen to and think you’d be happy enough if he was your granddad. I sincerely hope, and I think they will, that the Sens can produce the goods today and do it for him.

Speaking Of Loveable Grandad Types

Sad news of the passing of Richie Benaud yesterday. Another one who just sounded like a gentlemen, an excellent player converting into an excellent commentator/analyst. There are not too many Aussie sportsmen who have endeared themselves to the English as much as Richie – and that is as big an achievement as anything.

Roberto Martinez

Soft Bobby has left the room and here comes Ruthless Robby. I’d sack him personally. Sounds harsh after a record points tally last season, but I’m not convinced by a number of his fundamentals. Transfers are questionable, tactically struggles to change a game in-play, has struggled to juggle his players and prioritise the right games at times this season, and more than anything else, his excessive praise of the players – ‘amazing, incredible, fantastic’ – even in defeat, is beyond believable. Harsh, but I think we continue to decline with him in charge.

Neck on the Line

It is that time of year when I am prepared to put my neck on the line and make some outrageous sporting predictions for 2012. I think I did it a month earlier last year – but it has been a hectic start to the year with the launch of a new project that I am working on. And that new project is related to the subject of this blog and making predictions, and collecting and analysing data and events in sport (largely football). The company is called Onside Analysis (www.onsideanalysis.com) and I am working with a former Smartodds colleague, Dave Hastie…..exciting times but plenty of hard work ahead. A small part of the website and work is blogging, so I will be splitting my time between blogging for the Onside Analysis website, and Random Writing, but fear not, I shall continue to blog on here for all two of my loyal readers.

So without further ado, here goes with my thoughts and predictions for the year ahead.

Euro 2012 – I am not particularly throwing a huge outsider into the mix with this one, but I strongly like Germany to win the Euro this time round. At 100% fitness and form, I would go with Spain every time, but that is not going to happen. I cannot help but feel that Barca’s success in recent seasons is taking its toll on them and in turn on the national team. David Villa is already ruled out, and there are serious concerns over Xavi. He will be used sparingly between now and then with Guardiola preserving him for Champions League games now that the league race is pretty much over. Form is another issue – Fernando Torres. Don’t think I need to say much more. I could throw discipline and Gerard Pique out there right now, but that will resolve itself. The number of Clasicos could also bite them in the butt. On the flipside, the Germans are a hungry young team with plenty to prove, and for the first time in a long time, possessing some serious flair in the side.

Boxing – The world awaits for Floyd and Manny to get it on. I thought we were close for this May, but dreams were dashed once again. Well, Floyd is going to prison that is one thing that is certain. Beforehand, he faces Miguel Cotto in May and I think he will outclass him easily enough. Manny is up against Timothy Bradley and I have a feeling that Bradley is going to surprise him and dash any hopes of the dream fight somewhere down the line. Mayweather will continue to fight, continue to get $20m+ per fight even when he gets out of the nick, and will eventually retire unbeaten.

Stanley Cup – I would love nothing more than to see a NY Rangers or a San Jose get to the Stanley Cup Finals but I am going with the tried and trusted. This is something of a filthy prediction but this is going Boston/Detroit in my mind. I am hoping the Sens or the Leafs can keep hold of their playoff spots – and then I’ll be betting against both of them when they get there!

Premier League – I think this is going to go all the way to the wire, or at least the third to last game of the season when City host United. I think Man Utd have won the league in the last couple of seasons by being the best of the worst – I think this time they fall just short to City. The fixtures possibly just favour Man Utd, but I think it comes down to that one game, and I can see City edging it. I think Utd take the Europa League.

London 2012 – No specific predictions here apart from I recall from Vancouver how much pressure the Canadian athletes felt particularly at the start of the competition. Expectations were high, and media attention was huge – an early medal will calm everybody and the sooner it happens for a British athlete in London, the better it will be for all. I am not confident expectations will be met however.

Champions League – The Special One has imprinted his style on Real Madrid and he has the squad and lead in the league to focus on their bid for their 10th Champions League trophy. This could be quite an open UCL season and it would not surprise me if one of the Italian teams went far this season. I do however just see Barca falling short this time. Bayern may also come close for this one, but I’m edging Real as they are finally playing the way Jose wants them to and they are looking strong.

FA Cup – It pains me to say this and this is filthier than my Stanley Cup prediction but I can see a Cup double for the team that plays in Red on Merseyside. I am super excited about my team’s chances, but losing Landon Donovan and with Steven Pienaar being cup-tied, we lose a huge amount of creativity, and I think we will find it tough against Sunderland. I hope and pray that I am wrong, but I can see ‘them’ winning it this year.

UFC – Not easy making predictions too far in advance for the UFC such is the nature of the sport, but the fight I am most looking forward to is Anderson Silva v Chael Sonnen which is scheduled for June 16th in Brazil. I think Anderson finishes him early this time round. UFC 146 at the end of May also has a peach of a fight – Alistair Overeem v Junior dos Santos…..it will be immense. I give Junior the edge here as I question Overeem’s character in and outside the Octagon.

I think I need a shower after some of those picks.

Short Sharp Jabs

It’s been a while since I have scribbled a few random sporting thoughts, so here goes.

Did anybody see the Floyd Mayweather fight? Youtube it if you didn’t - a truly amazing end to a fight. My take on it is this – the referee is 100% the one to blame for not having control over the situation and it is time for Cortes to be struck from the list. I love plenty of old people, but refereeing two world class fighters is not for them. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if it was Floyd that had gotten knocked out – I suspect many boxing fans would have not been so critical then.

Great news that Sid Crosby is back skating at 100% again. Hopefully he will be cleared for full contact soon and he can get back to his best. Concussions are scary. Looking forward to seeing him play again this season – can you tell I am excited for the NHL season to start? Funny to see how even when they are both injured, Crosby steals the limelight over Malkin, just like when they are playing.

I have often written about my sympathy for coaches and the expectancy and demand for instant success. Kansas City Chief have lost arguably their three best players for the whole season – Moeaki, Berry and Charles – and after losing their first two games heavily, their coach is under pressure. Unfortunately, it is going to be a long hard season for them now, but changing the coach will not help.

Basel aside, this is as ruthless a Man Utd team as I have seen in a number of seasons and they are getting that degree of invincibility back. Last season, I didn’t rate them at all, but they are looking strong and sharp this season. It will be necessary as City will push them all the way in the league season, though it is still hard to see them getting past Barca again in the Champions League. They may not have started the season particularly well, but the connection between Messi and Fabregas is already looking immense.

I thoroughly enjoyed the Ireland v Australia match in the Rugby World Cup group stage – absolute cracker of a game. There have been a couple of decent matches but I am looking forward to the quarter-finals onwards. Rugby has a similar problem to Cricket in that they do not have enough top class teams to make a great competition throughout such a long period of time. This is hugely elitist but seeing South Africa beat Namibia 80-something to nil is not fun.

On the rugby lines, I have to say that the press about the England team having a few beers and bungee jumping was wildly exaggerated and unnecessary. I do not and will not understand while a guy like Mike Tindall would play away from home – did he honestly think he would get away with it? Muppet.

It is flying under the radar to a degree in European football but the Man City style has rubbed off in Malaga where they too have received a load of cash and a load of decent players. Aside from Valencia, Barca and Real, there is no reason why they cannot push for fourth place. It may be Europa League at best, but if they keep up this strong start to the season, and sign a few more players in January, then they really could fight Atletico for fourth.

November 12th promises to be a sensational day of fights if you like MMA and Boxing. Cain Velasquez v Junior dos Santos and Manny Pacquiao v Juan Manuel Marquez are gonna be two quality fights, and I am truly excited for both of them.

Carlos Tevez? I have to admit to finding the situation at Man City quite humorous. I felt a touch sorry for him in the summer….suffering from homesickness and wanting to return to Argentina….it felt like Man City held all the cards….with no club in Argentina or Brazil being able to afford him. Now, it seems like the situation is reversed….he can cause them all kinds of problems until they agree to release him for an affordable price while he can sit back and pick up his ridiculous salary. City have nobody but themselves to blame for A. paying stupid salaries and B. signing incredibly temperamental strikers…..Tevez, Adebayor, Balotelli etc.

Super Saturday

This Saturday sees one of the biggest, if not the biggest boxing match of 2010. There is only one other fight that has the potential to be bigger this year, and that is Mayweather and Pacquiao. That should take nothing away from this fight however. I cannot promise that it will be an amazing fight in itself – it certainly will not be a brawl, and the chances of a knockout are fairly low. It will though be an amazing event and it should prove to be one of the best tactical fights one can see, with both boxers possessing world class speed and movement.

Personally, I favour Floyd for this fight, but I think it will be an enthralling fight to watch. A close win on points for Floyd, maybe 3 or 4 points, maybe less. I do see him emerging victorious though, with youth on his side to nick the win. Shane is as good a boxer outside of Pacquiao to a. challenge Floyd and b. to create a huge spectacle. I just see him falling short this time, and I do think the ongoing row with Victor Conte which has erupted again could harm his mindset and preparations for this one.

This is just one of those fights that I am genuinely excited about watching. I’ll get up at 4-5am to watch this one, and I’ll be charged up for it as always – perhaps with a hint of sadness for not being there, but you can’t win them all. Thankfully, the fight is being shown live on Swiss television so the Lausanne population will not be too affected by a major Esteva sulk. Instead of swanning off to Vegas, we’re hosting a cocktail party at our place. Note the cocktail part of it rather than beer. The mission to shed the pounds continues – I figure a vodka and orange counts as one of my five per day right?

The Froch/Kessler fight last Saturday was highly entertaining, but for completely different reasons to how I anticipate this fight. Both fighters gave their all, and withstood some big shots. Froch now has to get the job done against Abraham, which is another fight I would love to see and I may just make it to that one as it will almost certainly be in Europe. The success of that fight further strengthens those in favour of the Showtime Super Six concept, and I am certainly one of those given the entertaining fights we have seen so far.

That fight just whetted my appetite for what is to come on Saturday. I’ll be tuning in on Sunday morning regardless of the cocktail count, and I’ll be ready for another Mayweather master class, which will hopefully lead to Floyd v Manny....we can but dream.