Group A Analysis

Just in case anybody was not aware, there is actually a World Cup starting on Friday. When I was a boy, I collected all the newspaper pull outs, I collected Panini stickers....heck I still do. In my previous employments, I prepared player lists, worked on articles, wrote analysis of matches in the build up to the tournament and during. It would seem rude not to continue that, so why break a habit of a lifetime. Here’s my breakdown of the teams and views.

Group A

South Africa

I fear for the South Africans in much the same way I feared for Poland in Euro 2008 but probably even more so – at least Poland had the Swiss to take up some of the ‘host’ slack. Over the last couple of years, South Africa have been pretty woeful. They struggled badly in qualifying for the last African Cup of Nations, and failed to reach the final tournament, and the quality of their performances has been alarming to say the least. Bringing Parreira back in October 2009 was a clear sign of just how desperate the SAFA were, and although there has been a slight improvement in friendly results, I cannot read too much into that.

They have been scheduling as many friendly matches as feasibly possible, at times when the opposition have been using those matches to test younger players, formations etc – analysing the line-ups, so many of them fielded weakened teams so results if anything probably flatter them.

The one positive for them is that the global expectations of them are low. Undoubtedly there will be pressure within the country, but otherwise nobody is really expecting too much from them in this tournament.

I expect three brave performances from them. They will work as hard as anybody, and will clearly base their play on good organisation, a high tempo game of closing the opposition down, and relying on counter attacks to steal a goal. I expect their opponents to have trouble breaking them down – but each one of their group rivals has sufficient individual ability and firepower to break them at some point.

Offensively, unfortunately there will be far too much reliance of Steven Pienaar. He is their one top class attacking player and I just fear that if the opposition close him down and stop him, they will stop a major part of the team’s threat. Their other threat will be from set pieces, and they could cause the Mexicans especially problems in that department.

I anticipate them being involved in low scoring matches, certainly initially, but I would not expect to see them fighting back in matches. The three group opponents just have too much ability on the ball and in keeping possession, that it will be too difficult for the South Africans to put them under sustained pressure and create too many chances. Their best hope will be keeping the game tight and trying to nick a goal. Even if they go a goal behind, I would not expect a kamikaze response – Parreira is not stupid and he knows the team’s limitations.

I would be surprised if they come anything other than bottom of Group A. We will see some brave performances, they may sneak a point with their best chance coming in the opening game against Mexico in my view or in the third game if there is nothing at stake. There will be no shame for them, but they simply do not have the quality to challenge here.

Prediction – Group stage Only


Mexico

I have been paying a fair amount of attention to the Mexicans in qualification and in the build up to this event for a number of reasons. The Concacaf qualification is almost always dominated by the US and Mexico, but this time around it was more uncomfortable for Mexico largely due to good old Sven than it really should have been. Bringing Aguirre is was the best decision they could have made – I rate him highly as a coach from his days in Spain, and any longer with Sven and they could have missed out completely.

Instead, Aguirre rallied the troops and has got them playing good football and relatively united. The omission of Jonathan dos Santos reportedly upset his brother Giovani who is becoming an important player for the team, but I would expect that storm to blow over. Otherwise, there are question marks over the lack of match time for Andres Guardado – is Aguirre being over protective with his star man due to his injury-proneness, or is he planning on using him sparingly and trusting other players more so? I suspect it is more the former, as he is too good to leave out at a WC. Another player I rate highly, far more than Giovani, but his form and fitness over the last 12-18 months has not been great.

Veteran legend Blanco is still knocking about, usually smoking, drinking, partying hard, and producing cameos and moments of brilliance every so often. He will only play for 20-30 minutes maximum, but still important to the squad. He along with goalkeeper Perez, are the two old men in the squad, adding some experience to a pretty young team otherwise – many of which come from the U17 side which won the World Champs in 2005. That is a slight concern for me – experience in big matches.

I do have a number of concerns about them – they look vulnerable from set pieces, the goalkeeper looks somewhat erratic at times and is probably not the best choice from the three in their squad, and I do wonder about them psychologically at times. That all said, there are a number of major positives going for them – they have some solid players at the back, all of whom have experience of playing in Europe, Rafael Marquez will anchor the midfield and his presence will be key, and they have some fantastically talented and lively forwards who will be able to cause problems for most teams.

I can see them pushing very hard with France and Uruguay, but I just give Uruguay a slight edge to pip them for second – that is purely on them possessing a fraction more experience all-round at the highest level, and having a natural world class striker in Forlan. The peak for this squad is probably 2014, but they can still have a strong tournament here, and cause an upset or two. I have them to finish third, but I would not be surprised if they edge either of France or Uruguay out.

Prediction – Group stage Only (Just!)


France

Most people are expecting the French to skip through this group but I doubt they will have it all their own way, and even if they do, I do not hold out too much hope for them. The squad is pretty good – no real doubt about that, and fair to say that it is the superior one in the group. Ribery, Lloris, and Malouda are all top class, and come into this competition in good shape. Gourcuff and Anelka also, but considering that neither is not considered to be a guaranteed starter in my mind shows the old tendencies by Domenech to stick with his old and trusted players such as Henry.

The coach is one of their major weaknesses in my mind, and we will see how his selections go. The starting eleven is far from certain and some sub-par performances early in the tournament will see him come under pressure to give the likes of Anelka and Gourcuff more time. I think the players have doubts about him, and given that he is leaving after this tournament, any adversity or questionable calls from him, could cause a rebellion in the squad.

The other main weakness in the team is in defence. Gallas has had fitness troubles but will start if fit, and there are doubts about the likes of Abidal and Sagna who have not had the best of seasons. Domenech could go with Toulalan alongside Gallas, or Squillaci, but either way, I think the uncertainty does not help them, and will be an issue when they are challenged by some talented forwards.

I do not overly like them too much these days, but I see them having enough to get through the group, probably top. Their possible route for the knockout phase is potentially one of the easier ones – but I can see them being taken out at some point possibly around the quarters. If they go further, I would not be too surprised, purely as an experienced team with some individual brilliance from Ribery and Gourcuff, but they need those players to be on top form and for Domenech to make the right calls at the right time – otherwise it could be a shockingly poor campaign. I see enough potential weaknesses that could turn into major ones, and they can be exploited unless they hit top form.

Prediction – Quarters



Uruguay

Uruguay scraped through qualifying via a play-off match with Costa Rica, and have not been overly convincing in the last couple of years combining some excellent results with some woeful. They come into this competition in reasonable shape, spearheaded by Diego Forlan who has had another excellent season in Spain.

I envisage they will have a battle with Mexico for second place, and the main reason I give them the edge is Forlan. He could have an excellent competition, and alternatively the coverage that teams put on him may free Luis Suarez to profit from.

Defensively they are strong also and Lugano and Godin will form a solid partnership. I wonder about the midfield however, and I suspect they will resort to tactical fouling to stop more talented opposition midfielders and forwards so discipline could be an issue in some games. Creativity from midfield may also be a weakness but they will focus on getting the ball up to the front two and then relying on wing play to open their attacks on the counter.

They do however have the defensive ability to frustrate teams and the firepower to score goals. Both combined tell me they have edge in the group, but even if they do progress they may have a tough task to go much further. I predict a second place finish and then a possible match with Argentina which is where their campaign will come to an end in my view. It could be earlier if Forlan and Suarez are not producing the goods.

Prediction – Round of 16