Group F Analysis

Group F

Italy

I have difficulty ranking and analysing the Italians in much the same way I struggle with the Germans. Neither particularly give me great confidence nor do I like the way they are playing coming into the competition, but they have the ability to grow into the tournament and go a long way. They also have a major injury doubt which could severely affect their progress in the event. Andrea Pirlo has a knock and is expected to miss the first two games – that should not affect them too much and they have enough to get through the group without him. They will desperately need him however for the knockout phase as he is absolutely key for them.

Experience could be key in this tournament and they have that in abundance. Buffon, Cannavaro, Zambrotta and company have all huge experience at the highest level, and that will benefit them. At the same time, I have question marks about some of the veterans and whether they still have the legs to produce a title winning campaign again. Cannavaro especially concerns me, and I think he could be exposed plenty.

Midfield looks strong and talented as always. De Rossi and Pirlo is as good a partnership as there is in the tournament, and they will be key to their chances. Going forward, they do not inspire me at all, and they will not be creating chance after chance. They do however possess a handful of clever forwards, who will make their presence known, earn a free kick or two, and chip in with a goal here and there. There is no outstanding front man though in my view, and width may be an issue also.

Overall, I expect them to coast through the groups, but I am not sure how much further they will go. They are scheduled to meet Spain in the quarter-finals and that will be their downfall I believe. They should edge the average teams in their group, and a Denmark perhaps in the Round of 16, but Spain have too much class for them in my view. Quarters and out for these boys.

Prediction – Quarter-finals



Paraguay

In a group I consider to be one of the easier ones to predict, I expect the Paraguayans to qualify and finish second at least here. I like the look of their squad – they have been settled for few years now and they have decent experience. They have a couple of very dangerous goalscorers also in Roque Santa Cruz and Oscar Cardozo, which gives them an advantage over many similar teams who are solid and compact but lack finishers.

They were excellent in qualification and I believe having such a settled squad and experienced team was the key element for them as so many of their opponents in South America went through several coaching changes and transition periods. Whether that will benefit them as much in this event, I am not sure, but they should be able to get past Slovakia and New Zealand. After that, it is a tough ask of them. They will likely play Holland, and they will find it hard to get past them.

I think much depends on how they approach some games. They have been known to be extremely negative over the last few years and I would like to see them take a few more chances in some games. If they do that, and provide the front two with chances, they may do better than I predict. Otherwise, I expect a solid display but Round of 16 is the end for them, quarters at the very maximum.

Prediction – Round of 16



Slovakia

The Slovaks qualified from a tough group including Slovenia and the Czechs, and they did well to finish top. Their record against those two was poor however as they won one, drew one and lost two. They qualified by ruthlessly beating the lesser teams in the group, which they obviously did better than Slovenia and the Czechs, but at the same time it shows that they struggled against better opposition.

They have a talented squad and some good young players. Marek Hamsik is an excellent prospect in central midfield and it is a matter of time before he moves to a big European club while Miroslav Stoch and Vladimir Weiss have progressed well in the last twelve months. They do however need a fit Martin Skrtel – he is a key cornerstone in the defence and they need him.

They have a chance of beating Paraguay to second place but I just favour the South Americans. They have greater firepower and experience to edge Slovakia out and while the Slovaks may benefit from playing NZ first, I think the Paraguayans will emerge ahead of them.

Prediction – Group stage Only



New Zealand

The fact is, the only reason NZ are at this competition is because Australia moved to the Asian Confederation. Otherwise, there would be no chance of them being here and in fairness, they are out of their depth against this level of opposition – probably the only team I can say that about out of the 32. They are simply not used to playing against quality opposition and they could have a rude awakening here. Thankfully for them, they do not face any prolific scorers, although Paraguay could be the team to take advantage of them if any.

The key thing for them is to enjoy the experience and get used to playing in such events. That may sound a little patronising but it is true and they need to take that to improve in the coming years. Aside from Ryan Nelson, they have no real experience at a decent level, and they have a couple of promising younger players like Tommy Smith and Chris Wood who will benefit hugely from this. Needless to say, 0-3 for me here, and they will be going home pretty swiftly.

Prediction – Group stage Only