If you are easily spooked or somebody with a sensitive disposition, then I suggest you click the X in the top right corner of the page and switch Coronation Street on. I am going to share two short but true stories with you from the last week of my life, and I cannot be responsible for how you will feel while reading them. Remember, the blog is called Random Writing.
It was a warm but grey Thursday evening in Lausanne. Bobby had finished work for the day and headed home slightly earlier than usual. That night, Mexico were playing the French in the 2010 World Cup and Bobby had invited a couple of friends round to watch the game and have a cheeky Indian curry. It was one of his favourite meals, so combined with some good football and some good company, it made for an excellent night’s entertainment.
And so it proved.
The football was excellent as Mexico beat the French much to the delight of the viewers in that apartment. The food was pretty good even if Bobby thought it was slightly below usual standards. And the company was pretty solid as always with plenty of laughs to boot.
The evening came to a close as Bobby and Banana washed up and finished the laundry. They had a wash, brushed their teeth and tucked each other into bed. It was a late night for them as thirty minutes divided them and the next day. They had a little chat and giggle, before turning the lights off and settling down to sleep.
No more than five minutes, ten at the maximum, had passed before the shutters outside their bedroom window starting rattling. Bobby’s initial thought was that the wind had disturbed them, Banana’s first thought was that somebody was rattling them. It was not the first time and would surely not be the last that Banana was right.
The noise became louder as a silhouette emerged behind the shutters as they were starting to be raised. It was difficult to see a great deal, neither Bobby nor Banana were blessed with particularly good night vision despite both their mothers insisting that carrots were the way forward when they were younger. However, the light shining behind the window from the office across the yard highlighted the figure standing on the window ledge attempting to raise the shutters.
Banana whispered to Bobby that she thought somebody was there as she snuggled up to Bobby. He was sure there was at this point as he had a sudden flashback to a previous time that something similar happened while he was at university. In a similar situation, Bobby was sleeping with his window open and curtains closed as two visitors approached his window. That moment provided him with the perfect experience to deal with this situation as he produced exactly the same excruciatingly loud cough which he produced on that night in late 1998, to surprise the intruders who promptly scampered.
The intruder on this occasion was fortunate to say the very least that he escaped at just the right time. Bobby had found his glasses, grabbed the baseball bat, but was wearing his usual sleeping attire which amounted to nothing. It was a fearsome sight, but the cough proved enough of a deterrent on this occasion as Bobby and Banana slept happily ever after.....with one eye open and a baseball bat under the bed.
The End
The Beginning
Bobby and Banana were off on their travels once again as they had yet another wedding to attend in London this time. It was a good old uni friend of Bobby’s who was getting married to a lovely girl. What made this wedding and trip to London particularly special was that Bobby was also the matchmaker. On a night out in 2006, call it a mini reunion between the four uni boys and a handful of others, they hit Soho for a night out. At the very end of the evening, Bobby started randomly talking to two girls and suggested to his friend that he should buy them a drink. Bobby even handed his friend the cash to buy the drinks, even if this seems to have slipped his friend’s mind. One thing led to another and Bobby’s friend obtained the phone number of one of the ladies. A beautiful relationship progressed from there and culminated in a fantastic wedding in London on Monday.
They were blessed. The venue was amazing. Set in Kent at a country castle, the barn was a fantastic setting and the weather played its part furthermore to add some sun to a beautiful day.
It had been an early start for Bobby and Banana. They woke up at 5.45am, took a taxi to Heathrow airport where they collected a hire car and drove to Kent. Banana looked as beautiful as ever in a fabulous black dress, and Bobby was suited and booted in a grey pin-striped suit and blight blue shirt. There are some days when both of them knew they were not at their best, but this particular day, they scrubbed up reasonably well.
The service went well, followed by an excellent meal, and then some drinks in the garden in the sun. It was a great opportunity for Bobby and Banana to catch up with another old uni mate and his partner, and the conversation was flowing. Bobby suggested that the quartet take a seat on the garden chairs as the sun began to set. As the chat continued to flow, Bobby felt a drop of water on his hand, but thought nothing more of it other than a drop of rain that must have lingered on a branch above. Shortly after, another drop landed on his back. He twisted his arm around his back to investigate only to find a large brown substance on his hand. A bird had flown overhead and decided to relieve himself on the back of Bobby’s shirt.
This was not just any poop however. This was a major poop. This bird had seemingly had a curry the night before, and had clearly identified Bobby as the perfect individual to share his joys. Banana scrubbed Bobby’s shirt with a tissue, and Bobby put his suit jacket back on as shortly after, they bid their farewells and rode off in the sunset.
Another End
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
WC Rankings
So, how do I rank the teams? This is always tricky when it involves cross-continent teams as it is effectively the only real opportunity one gets at this event to compare them, and even then it is not easy. Many of these can be argued, and if you wish to argue with me, go to the bar, buy two pints, and let’s sit and blast through them. There is nothing better than a good old debate about ranking teams and players.
Note, I am not considering the draw here, just the strength of the teams and squads on any given day.
I split the teams into six groups. The first involves Spain and Brazil. Those two are ahead of the chasing pack in my view. They have that greater quality all round, and I expect one of those two to win the tournament if the wind is blowing in the right direction.
Group two are those teams who have a good chance of challenging for the trophy if they hit form, do not suffer too many injuries, and if their foolish goalkeeper makes no more mistakes. Perhaps the most controversial one is Ivory Coast, but I really like their starting eleven in this tournament so they just make it on the list.
Group three is a group of four teams who I consider to be strong candidates for upsetting teams and potentially making a semi-final run. The US are a favourite of mine as I explained in my analysis, and they have the ability to surprise any team on their day as they have shown over the last 12 months. The other three have strong teams and most importantly for this group, some good firepower which will enable them to emerge ahead of some of the other teams.
Group four is the next tier down – all of whom could spring a surprise or two, but I very much doubt could do it for 5-6 matches and progress too far. Serbia could potentially be in the group above but I have serious issues with their mentality.
Group five are teams who are not going to cause anybody too much trouble. Maybe a strong game, but I think there are serious deficiencies in their play to threaten many of the sides in the tournament. Nigeria may be underestimated but I am very negative on them right now and I believe there are major issues and flaws in the team.
Group six have as good a chance as a pub team of doing anything noteworthy.
Spain
Brazil
Argentina
Holland
Portugal
England
France
Germany
Italy
Ivory Coast
USA
Uruguay
Paraguay
Cameroon
South Korea
Serbia
Ghana
Mexico
Chile
Denmark
Japan
Switzerland
Australia
Nigeria
Honduras
South Africa
Slovakia
Greece
Slovenia
Algeria
North Korea
New Zealand
Agree or disagree? Of course you disagree, that is the nature of this kind of thing and the beauty of the game. I sound like Sepp Blatter. Go to the bar, and we can talk it over, mine is a John Smiths please.
Note, I am not considering the draw here, just the strength of the teams and squads on any given day.
I split the teams into six groups. The first involves Spain and Brazil. Those two are ahead of the chasing pack in my view. They have that greater quality all round, and I expect one of those two to win the tournament if the wind is blowing in the right direction.
Group two are those teams who have a good chance of challenging for the trophy if they hit form, do not suffer too many injuries, and if their foolish goalkeeper makes no more mistakes. Perhaps the most controversial one is Ivory Coast, but I really like their starting eleven in this tournament so they just make it on the list.
Group three is a group of four teams who I consider to be strong candidates for upsetting teams and potentially making a semi-final run. The US are a favourite of mine as I explained in my analysis, and they have the ability to surprise any team on their day as they have shown over the last 12 months. The other three have strong teams and most importantly for this group, some good firepower which will enable them to emerge ahead of some of the other teams.
Group four is the next tier down – all of whom could spring a surprise or two, but I very much doubt could do it for 5-6 matches and progress too far. Serbia could potentially be in the group above but I have serious issues with their mentality.
Group five are teams who are not going to cause anybody too much trouble. Maybe a strong game, but I think there are serious deficiencies in their play to threaten many of the sides in the tournament. Nigeria may be underestimated but I am very negative on them right now and I believe there are major issues and flaws in the team.
Group six have as good a chance as a pub team of doing anything noteworthy.
Spain
Brazil
Argentina
Holland
Portugal
England
France
Germany
Italy
Ivory Coast
USA
Uruguay
Paraguay
Cameroon
South Korea
Serbia
Ghana
Mexico
Chile
Denmark
Japan
Switzerland
Australia
Nigeria
Honduras
South Africa
Slovakia
Greece
Slovenia
Algeria
North Korea
New Zealand
Agree or disagree? Of course you disagree, that is the nature of this kind of thing and the beauty of the game. I sound like Sepp Blatter. Go to the bar, and we can talk it over, mine is a John Smiths please.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Group H Analysis
Group H
Spain
Spain used to suffer from the English disease – big expectations, but would fail when they should do better. That was the case until Euro2008 and I think that has changed the mindset of the Spanish for the foreseeable future. There is no doubt in my mind that they are the best team in the World, and they could outplay the best teams in the competition.
I just have one fear however, and it is the one reason why I think they will possibly fall short in South Africa. Think about it. Combine Euro2008, along with the success of Barcelona – there are some absolutely key players in the team – Xavi, Iniesta, Puyol, Villa, Silva – who have played in so many games over the last two years, and that heavy workload is beginning to take its toll. Barca were not what they were two years ago, and injuries are starting to play a role now. Xavi would have been operated on a knee injury if it was not for the WC, Iniesta has struggled badly over the last six months particularly, while Fernando Torres is as fragile as ever. That is a major concern of mine with regards to Spain and I think it could have a major effect. A large number of the players have played 55-60+ games per season in the last two years, and they are suffering now.
If they somehow manage to avoid injuries, then they are the team for me. I am not totally sure about the defence and Iker Casillas has even had one or two weak moments in the lead up to this event, but the way in which they absolutely dominate possession means they can usually hide that weakness.
For me, it is a case of following them closely as the tournament progresses. If they avoid injuries, then it is theirs for the taking. If not, I see them just falling short. I am just not sure who can take advantage of any slip. They have a talented squad, but they cannot afford to miss the likes of Xavi Iniesta or Villa and Torres, so they need some luck in that department. Weighing everything up, I see them losing in a close final.
Prediction – Runners-up
Chile
Any Football Managers players will be cheering some of these Chilean players on as Mati Fernandez and Alexis Sanchez have been legends in the game for so many people. In real-life however, both are probably under a bit of pressure now to fulfil some of the potential that so many football folks have raved about but they have yet to live up to.
Apart from the likes of Sanchez, they have an experienced squad with many of the squad having played in Europe and Spain in particular. Mark Gonzalez could be one of the stars of the show if he can stay fit – something that has rarely happened in his career thus far. He is an excellent talent and on his day, can cause any right-back problems.
Defensively, they are very experienced. Fuentes, Contreras, and Jara have been mainstays in the squad for years along with Claudio Bravo in goal. They are pretty solid as a unit without being amazing individually. It is not the strongest point however, and is possibly the weakest of the five South American sides. In qualifying they did very well to come second in the group as they were rewarded for their attacking play. Humberto Suazo will lead the line and will have Gonzalez, Sanchez and Matigol supporting him down the flanks. If they provide Suazo with chances, he will score goals.
As far as their chances go, I think they will be competing with Honduras and the Swiss for second place, and that could be quite a battle. I just about give them the edge however. I like their attacking options and they can outscore the other two to steal second place. Marcelo Bielsa is doing a good job as coach and he can get them out of this group in my view. Even if they do however, a Round of 16 game against Brazil will send them home pretty sharply, but they could impress a few with some of their play along the way to that stage.
Prediction – Round of 16
Honduras
I think these boys will prove to be a fun team to watch, and I have a little soft spot for them. A handful of the squad play in England – Palacios, Figueroa and Thomas, and they are good, strong committed players with some flair added in.
Their preparations are hampered somewhat by injuries to two key men – Palacios and striker David Suazo. Both will be touch and go for the first game against Chile and they would be big losses to the team if they miss out.
They do have some other decent players. Carlos Pavon has a good goalscoring record, while the midfield is full of ferocious runners who are strong and fearless. Their approach will undoubtedly be a high tempo style and they will put their opponents under pressure throughout. Many of them will be keen to impress and earn transfers to Europe.
Whether they have enough to get through the group, I fear not. They will be a tough opponent for the Swiss and Chile, but unless Palacios and Suazo can get fit and on form, they will struggle to win games – just lacking the quality of Chile and possible the discipline of the Swiss. I am looking forward to watching them, but they are going home after the groups.
Prediction – Group Stage Only
Switzerland
I remember the start if Hitzfeld’s career as Swiss coach – picture me, sat in a pub chatting with the barman who likes stupid bets. He says, I think Luxembourg can beat Switzerland – I say, that is unlikely my friend....why not go for a draw if you suspect a surprise? Switzerland 1-2 Luxembourg.....Rob gets his coat and leaves promptly.
They turned it around, and did very well to negotiate an average but tricky group including Greece, Latvia and Israel. They are however a very average team. Some of their key players are not even regulars at their teams, and that will go against them. They will also struggle to score goals. Alexander Frei is done now, and despite a strong midfield which is key in protecting the defence and supporting the front men, they do not have enough to do much here. I think they are a little unfortunate in terms of the group – they are up against flair teams with excellent individual skill which will prove their downfall. They would be better against some of the more one dimensional European teams who they can frustrate and nick a goal against. They may score a goal or two, but they will find it hard to stop all three rivals.
The midfield will have to be on fire to lead them out of the groups, and I just do not see it as they could well finish bottom of the group. I have a soft spot for the Swiss, after all I am a resident but they will be gone pretty quickly unfortunately.
Prediction – Group Stage Only
Spain
Spain used to suffer from the English disease – big expectations, but would fail when they should do better. That was the case until Euro2008 and I think that has changed the mindset of the Spanish for the foreseeable future. There is no doubt in my mind that they are the best team in the World, and they could outplay the best teams in the competition.
I just have one fear however, and it is the one reason why I think they will possibly fall short in South Africa. Think about it. Combine Euro2008, along with the success of Barcelona – there are some absolutely key players in the team – Xavi, Iniesta, Puyol, Villa, Silva – who have played in so many games over the last two years, and that heavy workload is beginning to take its toll. Barca were not what they were two years ago, and injuries are starting to play a role now. Xavi would have been operated on a knee injury if it was not for the WC, Iniesta has struggled badly over the last six months particularly, while Fernando Torres is as fragile as ever. That is a major concern of mine with regards to Spain and I think it could have a major effect. A large number of the players have played 55-60+ games per season in the last two years, and they are suffering now.
If they somehow manage to avoid injuries, then they are the team for me. I am not totally sure about the defence and Iker Casillas has even had one or two weak moments in the lead up to this event, but the way in which they absolutely dominate possession means they can usually hide that weakness.
For me, it is a case of following them closely as the tournament progresses. If they avoid injuries, then it is theirs for the taking. If not, I see them just falling short. I am just not sure who can take advantage of any slip. They have a talented squad, but they cannot afford to miss the likes of Xavi Iniesta or Villa and Torres, so they need some luck in that department. Weighing everything up, I see them losing in a close final.
Prediction – Runners-up
Chile
Any Football Managers players will be cheering some of these Chilean players on as Mati Fernandez and Alexis Sanchez have been legends in the game for so many people. In real-life however, both are probably under a bit of pressure now to fulfil some of the potential that so many football folks have raved about but they have yet to live up to.
Apart from the likes of Sanchez, they have an experienced squad with many of the squad having played in Europe and Spain in particular. Mark Gonzalez could be one of the stars of the show if he can stay fit – something that has rarely happened in his career thus far. He is an excellent talent and on his day, can cause any right-back problems.
Defensively, they are very experienced. Fuentes, Contreras, and Jara have been mainstays in the squad for years along with Claudio Bravo in goal. They are pretty solid as a unit without being amazing individually. It is not the strongest point however, and is possibly the weakest of the five South American sides. In qualifying they did very well to come second in the group as they were rewarded for their attacking play. Humberto Suazo will lead the line and will have Gonzalez, Sanchez and Matigol supporting him down the flanks. If they provide Suazo with chances, he will score goals.
As far as their chances go, I think they will be competing with Honduras and the Swiss for second place, and that could be quite a battle. I just about give them the edge however. I like their attacking options and they can outscore the other two to steal second place. Marcelo Bielsa is doing a good job as coach and he can get them out of this group in my view. Even if they do however, a Round of 16 game against Brazil will send them home pretty sharply, but they could impress a few with some of their play along the way to that stage.
Prediction – Round of 16
Honduras
I think these boys will prove to be a fun team to watch, and I have a little soft spot for them. A handful of the squad play in England – Palacios, Figueroa and Thomas, and they are good, strong committed players with some flair added in.
Their preparations are hampered somewhat by injuries to two key men – Palacios and striker David Suazo. Both will be touch and go for the first game against Chile and they would be big losses to the team if they miss out.
They do have some other decent players. Carlos Pavon has a good goalscoring record, while the midfield is full of ferocious runners who are strong and fearless. Their approach will undoubtedly be a high tempo style and they will put their opponents under pressure throughout. Many of them will be keen to impress and earn transfers to Europe.
Whether they have enough to get through the group, I fear not. They will be a tough opponent for the Swiss and Chile, but unless Palacios and Suazo can get fit and on form, they will struggle to win games – just lacking the quality of Chile and possible the discipline of the Swiss. I am looking forward to watching them, but they are going home after the groups.
Prediction – Group Stage Only
Switzerland
I remember the start if Hitzfeld’s career as Swiss coach – picture me, sat in a pub chatting with the barman who likes stupid bets. He says, I think Luxembourg can beat Switzerland – I say, that is unlikely my friend....why not go for a draw if you suspect a surprise? Switzerland 1-2 Luxembourg.....Rob gets his coat and leaves promptly.
They turned it around, and did very well to negotiate an average but tricky group including Greece, Latvia and Israel. They are however a very average team. Some of their key players are not even regulars at their teams, and that will go against them. They will also struggle to score goals. Alexander Frei is done now, and despite a strong midfield which is key in protecting the defence and supporting the front men, they do not have enough to do much here. I think they are a little unfortunate in terms of the group – they are up against flair teams with excellent individual skill which will prove their downfall. They would be better against some of the more one dimensional European teams who they can frustrate and nick a goal against. They may score a goal or two, but they will find it hard to stop all three rivals.
The midfield will have to be on fire to lead them out of the groups, and I just do not see it as they could well finish bottom of the group. I have a soft spot for the Swiss, after all I am a resident but they will be gone pretty quickly unfortunately.
Prediction – Group Stage Only
Group G Analysis
Group G
Brazil
I fully expect to see a different Brazil to what most people expect and are used to. They can still turn it on when they want to and play some great stuff, but Dunga has introduced a more effective and organised style of play making them harder to beat. They will not be as attractive to watch as previous WC’s, but they should still be better than most sides to watch.
Their hopes and aspirations revolve around one player in particular for me, and that is Kaka. They need him to be fit and back to match sharpness, something which has not been the case all season since moving to Real Madrid. On one hand, he should be fresh and ready for this. On the other, he may be rusty and still struggling. Much will depend on him if Brazil are to really push on in this tournament. I am not suggesting they are a one man team at all, but if he is close to his best, then they will be really tough to stop. If he is out, then it could mean time for Robinho and that is a fair negative.
A handful of their players have also had very long seasons – Maicon and Lucio in particularly. Otherwise, the likes of Luis Fabiano, Robinho, Nilmar and Kaka have all conveniently had injuries in the second half of the season. I may be wrong, but I suspect their priority has been on this competition rather than with their clubs, so they should be fresh.
They should have enough quality and depth to get through the group and go all the way to the final. I actually give them the nod to win the tournament as I just feel Spain may run out of steam despite being the better side. I think Luis Fabiano will be one of the topscorers in the tournament, and this will be a really tough Brazilian team to beat. A Spain/Brazil final would be immense, and at the moment, I edge them for the better condition of their players.
Portugal
Another team hit by a late withdrawal as Nani was ruled out of the competition through injury. I cannot say I overly like him, but he has had some very good moments this season and played an important role for Portugal in their qualification. I do not think he is a major loss however as they have some options in attack.
They did receive some positive news though with Pepe passing a fitness test after recovering from a serious knee injury – he did not play at all before the end of the season but they decided to take a chance on him, and understandably so. He is a fantastic defender, but I think this competition just comes too soon for him.
The squad itself is decent on the whole. They have options all over the pitch and Queiroz has some decisions to make. The midfield if anything is a weakness for me. They have destroyers like Pedro Mendes, they have playmakers like Deco, but they just lack players who can really dominate in the midfield and control the game. When the going gets tough and they need to break the deadlock or take control of match, I am not sure where it will come from.
Interestingly, Cristiano Ronaldo was pretty quiet in qualification for the team. There is big expectation on him though in this tournament to produce the goods and if they are to go far, they desperately need him to be art his very best. Teams will double team him throughout and it will not be easy for him, but despite what many people say, he has had a very strong season in Madrid.
In theory, they should get out of this group but I am taking a bit of a shot here by saying that I think Ivory Coast will finish above them along with Brazil. I like many of the players in the squad, but there is something just lacking in my view. Too often they are ineffective, and I can see them being frustrated at times and stopped. It would be a bit of a surprise, but I say they get knocked out in the groups. Even if they do get through, I think they will lose to Spain in the Round of 16.
Prediction – Group Stage Only
Ivory Coast
Of all the African teams, the Ivorians are the team I like the most. Their starting team is very strong, they are solid defensively, have talented individuals who can create chances, and have some serious firepower. All-round, they can go further than any of their neighbours, despite being handed the toughest group of all.
They will be battling with Portugal to qualify with Brazil in my view, but they have a great chance of edging them out. The main reason for this is Didier Drogba. I think he can be the difference between a hugely successful tournament and failure for them. Seeing him pick up that arm injury in the pre-tournament friendly will have alarmed everybody following the team, but reports suggest he has recovered sufficiently to play in the first game, and that is great news for them. He is fundamental to the team and he can terrorise any defence in the competition.
The rest of the team is strong also – they are not a one-man team even though they do badly miss the focal point of Drogba when he is absent. At the back they have some strong defenders in Toure, Eboue and Boka, while Zokora, Yaya Toure and Romaric give the back four plenty of protection allowing the raiding full-backs to pile forward. Their wing play is excellent and they have good variation in how they attack teams. They will be the most adventurous of the African sides and will cause Portugal and Brazil problems.
I prefer them to the Portuguese, as long as Drogba is fit. I just feel that they have the pace and power to overcome them and grab second place. The toughest thing for them is that second place will probably mean playing Spain where they will fall short I believe. Not only do they have the toughest group but the toughest run in the knockout phase potentially. They will impress many and give some trouble to some of the best teams in the world, but I think Spain will edge them unfortunately.
Prediction – Round of 16
North Korea
Your guess is as good as mine really as far as these boys are concerned. I have only seen a couple of their qualifying matches on good old Eurosport, and they used to be one of my favourites to bet on against the bigger Asian teams. For a long time, they were expected to be hammered by the likes of Japan and neighbours South Korea, but they proved they can match those kind of teams and get results through hard work, discipline and organisation.
There may be opportunities from a betting perspective in this group also. They will not allow any of the teams to walk over them and will cover a huge amount of ground to make up for their inferior quality. The main unknown for me is how they will perform on such a big stage against some top class rivals, will they freeze or will it motivate and inspire them further? I fear that they will be in awe of the likes of Brazil in the opening game and I would be cautious for if considering a bet on them there. However, in the following two games, they will make it incredibly hard for Portugal and Ivory Coast to break them down and could frustrate them for long periods.
The other key element I note with them is that they hold their nerve and keep their style and shape even if they go behind. I suspect that will be more than evident here also as the coach will want to avoid any major hammerings. I would not expect them to come out attacking and leaving major gaps at the back if they go 1-0 down after 15 minutes, but to keep their shape keep things tight and try to get back into the game with patience. The bookmakers may expect them to get hammered in each game by 2-3 goals, but it will not be easy for any of them.
All that said, they are going out in the groups in last position!
Prediction – Group stage Only
Brazil
I fully expect to see a different Brazil to what most people expect and are used to. They can still turn it on when they want to and play some great stuff, but Dunga has introduced a more effective and organised style of play making them harder to beat. They will not be as attractive to watch as previous WC’s, but they should still be better than most sides to watch.
Their hopes and aspirations revolve around one player in particular for me, and that is Kaka. They need him to be fit and back to match sharpness, something which has not been the case all season since moving to Real Madrid. On one hand, he should be fresh and ready for this. On the other, he may be rusty and still struggling. Much will depend on him if Brazil are to really push on in this tournament. I am not suggesting they are a one man team at all, but if he is close to his best, then they will be really tough to stop. If he is out, then it could mean time for Robinho and that is a fair negative.
A handful of their players have also had very long seasons – Maicon and Lucio in particularly. Otherwise, the likes of Luis Fabiano, Robinho, Nilmar and Kaka have all conveniently had injuries in the second half of the season. I may be wrong, but I suspect their priority has been on this competition rather than with their clubs, so they should be fresh.
They should have enough quality and depth to get through the group and go all the way to the final. I actually give them the nod to win the tournament as I just feel Spain may run out of steam despite being the better side. I think Luis Fabiano will be one of the topscorers in the tournament, and this will be a really tough Brazilian team to beat. A Spain/Brazil final would be immense, and at the moment, I edge them for the better condition of their players.
Portugal
Another team hit by a late withdrawal as Nani was ruled out of the competition through injury. I cannot say I overly like him, but he has had some very good moments this season and played an important role for Portugal in their qualification. I do not think he is a major loss however as they have some options in attack.
They did receive some positive news though with Pepe passing a fitness test after recovering from a serious knee injury – he did not play at all before the end of the season but they decided to take a chance on him, and understandably so. He is a fantastic defender, but I think this competition just comes too soon for him.
The squad itself is decent on the whole. They have options all over the pitch and Queiroz has some decisions to make. The midfield if anything is a weakness for me. They have destroyers like Pedro Mendes, they have playmakers like Deco, but they just lack players who can really dominate in the midfield and control the game. When the going gets tough and they need to break the deadlock or take control of match, I am not sure where it will come from.
Interestingly, Cristiano Ronaldo was pretty quiet in qualification for the team. There is big expectation on him though in this tournament to produce the goods and if they are to go far, they desperately need him to be art his very best. Teams will double team him throughout and it will not be easy for him, but despite what many people say, he has had a very strong season in Madrid.
In theory, they should get out of this group but I am taking a bit of a shot here by saying that I think Ivory Coast will finish above them along with Brazil. I like many of the players in the squad, but there is something just lacking in my view. Too often they are ineffective, and I can see them being frustrated at times and stopped. It would be a bit of a surprise, but I say they get knocked out in the groups. Even if they do get through, I think they will lose to Spain in the Round of 16.
Prediction – Group Stage Only
Ivory Coast
Of all the African teams, the Ivorians are the team I like the most. Their starting team is very strong, they are solid defensively, have talented individuals who can create chances, and have some serious firepower. All-round, they can go further than any of their neighbours, despite being handed the toughest group of all.
They will be battling with Portugal to qualify with Brazil in my view, but they have a great chance of edging them out. The main reason for this is Didier Drogba. I think he can be the difference between a hugely successful tournament and failure for them. Seeing him pick up that arm injury in the pre-tournament friendly will have alarmed everybody following the team, but reports suggest he has recovered sufficiently to play in the first game, and that is great news for them. He is fundamental to the team and he can terrorise any defence in the competition.
The rest of the team is strong also – they are not a one-man team even though they do badly miss the focal point of Drogba when he is absent. At the back they have some strong defenders in Toure, Eboue and Boka, while Zokora, Yaya Toure and Romaric give the back four plenty of protection allowing the raiding full-backs to pile forward. Their wing play is excellent and they have good variation in how they attack teams. They will be the most adventurous of the African sides and will cause Portugal and Brazil problems.
I prefer them to the Portuguese, as long as Drogba is fit. I just feel that they have the pace and power to overcome them and grab second place. The toughest thing for them is that second place will probably mean playing Spain where they will fall short I believe. Not only do they have the toughest group but the toughest run in the knockout phase potentially. They will impress many and give some trouble to some of the best teams in the world, but I think Spain will edge them unfortunately.
Prediction – Round of 16
North Korea
Your guess is as good as mine really as far as these boys are concerned. I have only seen a couple of their qualifying matches on good old Eurosport, and they used to be one of my favourites to bet on against the bigger Asian teams. For a long time, they were expected to be hammered by the likes of Japan and neighbours South Korea, but they proved they can match those kind of teams and get results through hard work, discipline and organisation.
There may be opportunities from a betting perspective in this group also. They will not allow any of the teams to walk over them and will cover a huge amount of ground to make up for their inferior quality. The main unknown for me is how they will perform on such a big stage against some top class rivals, will they freeze or will it motivate and inspire them further? I fear that they will be in awe of the likes of Brazil in the opening game and I would be cautious for if considering a bet on them there. However, in the following two games, they will make it incredibly hard for Portugal and Ivory Coast to break them down and could frustrate them for long periods.
The other key element I note with them is that they hold their nerve and keep their style and shape even if they go behind. I suspect that will be more than evident here also as the coach will want to avoid any major hammerings. I would not expect them to come out attacking and leaving major gaps at the back if they go 1-0 down after 15 minutes, but to keep their shape keep things tight and try to get back into the game with patience. The bookmakers may expect them to get hammered in each game by 2-3 goals, but it will not be easy for any of them.
All that said, they are going out in the groups in last position!
Prediction – Group stage Only
Group F Analysis
Group F
Italy
I have difficulty ranking and analysing the Italians in much the same way I struggle with the Germans. Neither particularly give me great confidence nor do I like the way they are playing coming into the competition, but they have the ability to grow into the tournament and go a long way. They also have a major injury doubt which could severely affect their progress in the event. Andrea Pirlo has a knock and is expected to miss the first two games – that should not affect them too much and they have enough to get through the group without him. They will desperately need him however for the knockout phase as he is absolutely key for them.
Experience could be key in this tournament and they have that in abundance. Buffon, Cannavaro, Zambrotta and company have all huge experience at the highest level, and that will benefit them. At the same time, I have question marks about some of the veterans and whether they still have the legs to produce a title winning campaign again. Cannavaro especially concerns me, and I think he could be exposed plenty.
Midfield looks strong and talented as always. De Rossi and Pirlo is as good a partnership as there is in the tournament, and they will be key to their chances. Going forward, they do not inspire me at all, and they will not be creating chance after chance. They do however possess a handful of clever forwards, who will make their presence known, earn a free kick or two, and chip in with a goal here and there. There is no outstanding front man though in my view, and width may be an issue also.
Overall, I expect them to coast through the groups, but I am not sure how much further they will go. They are scheduled to meet Spain in the quarter-finals and that will be their downfall I believe. They should edge the average teams in their group, and a Denmark perhaps in the Round of 16, but Spain have too much class for them in my view. Quarters and out for these boys.
Prediction – Quarter-finals
Paraguay
In a group I consider to be one of the easier ones to predict, I expect the Paraguayans to qualify and finish second at least here. I like the look of their squad – they have been settled for few years now and they have decent experience. They have a couple of very dangerous goalscorers also in Roque Santa Cruz and Oscar Cardozo, which gives them an advantage over many similar teams who are solid and compact but lack finishers.
They were excellent in qualification and I believe having such a settled squad and experienced team was the key element for them as so many of their opponents in South America went through several coaching changes and transition periods. Whether that will benefit them as much in this event, I am not sure, but they should be able to get past Slovakia and New Zealand. After that, it is a tough ask of them. They will likely play Holland, and they will find it hard to get past them.
I think much depends on how they approach some games. They have been known to be extremely negative over the last few years and I would like to see them take a few more chances in some games. If they do that, and provide the front two with chances, they may do better than I predict. Otherwise, I expect a solid display but Round of 16 is the end for them, quarters at the very maximum.
Prediction – Round of 16
Slovakia
The Slovaks qualified from a tough group including Slovenia and the Czechs, and they did well to finish top. Their record against those two was poor however as they won one, drew one and lost two. They qualified by ruthlessly beating the lesser teams in the group, which they obviously did better than Slovenia and the Czechs, but at the same time it shows that they struggled against better opposition.
They have a talented squad and some good young players. Marek Hamsik is an excellent prospect in central midfield and it is a matter of time before he moves to a big European club while Miroslav Stoch and Vladimir Weiss have progressed well in the last twelve months. They do however need a fit Martin Skrtel – he is a key cornerstone in the defence and they need him.
They have a chance of beating Paraguay to second place but I just favour the South Americans. They have greater firepower and experience to edge Slovakia out and while the Slovaks may benefit from playing NZ first, I think the Paraguayans will emerge ahead of them.
Prediction – Group stage Only
New Zealand
The fact is, the only reason NZ are at this competition is because Australia moved to the Asian Confederation. Otherwise, there would be no chance of them being here and in fairness, they are out of their depth against this level of opposition – probably the only team I can say that about out of the 32. They are simply not used to playing against quality opposition and they could have a rude awakening here. Thankfully for them, they do not face any prolific scorers, although Paraguay could be the team to take advantage of them if any.
The key thing for them is to enjoy the experience and get used to playing in such events. That may sound a little patronising but it is true and they need to take that to improve in the coming years. Aside from Ryan Nelson, they have no real experience at a decent level, and they have a couple of promising younger players like Tommy Smith and Chris Wood who will benefit hugely from this. Needless to say, 0-3 for me here, and they will be going home pretty swiftly.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Italy
I have difficulty ranking and analysing the Italians in much the same way I struggle with the Germans. Neither particularly give me great confidence nor do I like the way they are playing coming into the competition, but they have the ability to grow into the tournament and go a long way. They also have a major injury doubt which could severely affect their progress in the event. Andrea Pirlo has a knock and is expected to miss the first two games – that should not affect them too much and they have enough to get through the group without him. They will desperately need him however for the knockout phase as he is absolutely key for them.
Experience could be key in this tournament and they have that in abundance. Buffon, Cannavaro, Zambrotta and company have all huge experience at the highest level, and that will benefit them. At the same time, I have question marks about some of the veterans and whether they still have the legs to produce a title winning campaign again. Cannavaro especially concerns me, and I think he could be exposed plenty.
Midfield looks strong and talented as always. De Rossi and Pirlo is as good a partnership as there is in the tournament, and they will be key to their chances. Going forward, they do not inspire me at all, and they will not be creating chance after chance. They do however possess a handful of clever forwards, who will make their presence known, earn a free kick or two, and chip in with a goal here and there. There is no outstanding front man though in my view, and width may be an issue also.
Overall, I expect them to coast through the groups, but I am not sure how much further they will go. They are scheduled to meet Spain in the quarter-finals and that will be their downfall I believe. They should edge the average teams in their group, and a Denmark perhaps in the Round of 16, but Spain have too much class for them in my view. Quarters and out for these boys.
Prediction – Quarter-finals
Paraguay
In a group I consider to be one of the easier ones to predict, I expect the Paraguayans to qualify and finish second at least here. I like the look of their squad – they have been settled for few years now and they have decent experience. They have a couple of very dangerous goalscorers also in Roque Santa Cruz and Oscar Cardozo, which gives them an advantage over many similar teams who are solid and compact but lack finishers.
They were excellent in qualification and I believe having such a settled squad and experienced team was the key element for them as so many of their opponents in South America went through several coaching changes and transition periods. Whether that will benefit them as much in this event, I am not sure, but they should be able to get past Slovakia and New Zealand. After that, it is a tough ask of them. They will likely play Holland, and they will find it hard to get past them.
I think much depends on how they approach some games. They have been known to be extremely negative over the last few years and I would like to see them take a few more chances in some games. If they do that, and provide the front two with chances, they may do better than I predict. Otherwise, I expect a solid display but Round of 16 is the end for them, quarters at the very maximum.
Prediction – Round of 16
Slovakia
The Slovaks qualified from a tough group including Slovenia and the Czechs, and they did well to finish top. Their record against those two was poor however as they won one, drew one and lost two. They qualified by ruthlessly beating the lesser teams in the group, which they obviously did better than Slovenia and the Czechs, but at the same time it shows that they struggled against better opposition.
They have a talented squad and some good young players. Marek Hamsik is an excellent prospect in central midfield and it is a matter of time before he moves to a big European club while Miroslav Stoch and Vladimir Weiss have progressed well in the last twelve months. They do however need a fit Martin Skrtel – he is a key cornerstone in the defence and they need him.
They have a chance of beating Paraguay to second place but I just favour the South Americans. They have greater firepower and experience to edge Slovakia out and while the Slovaks may benefit from playing NZ first, I think the Paraguayans will emerge ahead of them.
Prediction – Group stage Only
New Zealand
The fact is, the only reason NZ are at this competition is because Australia moved to the Asian Confederation. Otherwise, there would be no chance of them being here and in fairness, they are out of their depth against this level of opposition – probably the only team I can say that about out of the 32. They are simply not used to playing against quality opposition and they could have a rude awakening here. Thankfully for them, they do not face any prolific scorers, although Paraguay could be the team to take advantage of them if any.
The key thing for them is to enjoy the experience and get used to playing in such events. That may sound a little patronising but it is true and they need to take that to improve in the coming years. Aside from Ryan Nelson, they have no real experience at a decent level, and they have a couple of promising younger players like Tommy Smith and Chris Wood who will benefit hugely from this. Needless to say, 0-3 for me here, and they will be going home pretty swiftly.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Group E Analysis
Group E
Holland
I am anticipating a typical Dutch performance in this World Cup. Some moments of brilliance, some beautiful attacking play, but will ultimately be let down defensively when they cannot outscore their opponent. Going forward, they will cause most teams plenty of trouble, and we can only hope that Arjen Robben is fit to play some part. I have said it to a couple of people recently but I genuinely believe that if Robben was not so injury prone, he would be considered one of the top five players in the world. I will never forget a story on Marca during his time at Real Madrid explaining how he picked up an injury playing ‘keepy-uppy’ in training – just an example of his fragility.
Combine him with Van der Vaart, Van Persie, and Sneijder and they are a hugely talented frontline which will score plenty of goals. I am not sure Van Persie is the right guy to play as the lone striker, but he will do a job for them.
It will be defensively that they have issues, and that has been the case for a couple of years. They will beat average teams comfortable, occasionally outscore some bigger teams, but they are not good enough defensively to beat 3-4 top class teams consecutively in major competitions. They will raise everybody’s hopes as they coast through their group, but they will manage to throw it all away with one poor performance in the knockout stage. I’ll go for quarter-finals for the Dutch.
Prediction – Quarters
Japan
Solid but certainly not spectacular is how I would describe the Japanese. They have more flair than the other Asian sides, but at the same time, they are probably not quite as solid as some of the others like South Korea. They have some talented players in Nakamura who can produce some moments of magic which may just help them unlock some defences.
I do however think they will just fall short. Cameroon will be a tough opponent for them and that is another game I will stay clear from in terms of betting. Denmark have greater all-round quality in my view, and will edge them in the race for second in my mind. Group stage is as far as they will go for me, but they will not be a pushover for anybody.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Cameroon
On paper, they are the strongest Africa side alongside Ivory Coast for me, and they could be the only two to qualify from Africa. It is a tough task ahead for them in a tricky group, but they will fight with Denmark for second spot.
They have a strong starting eleven on paper, with a strong core to the team but slightly lacking down the wings. That may be a factor when they come up against well organised sides like Japan and Denmark, and one of the reasons why I just fancy Denmark to edge them out. They will rely heavily on their full-backs to get forward but they generally lack quality down the wings, and that will make it tough for them at times to break teams down.
If all their players are on top form, they could grab second, if not, then they could fail miserably. Carlos Kameni is one of their players who I have followed closely during his career in Spain at Espanyol. So many times I have watched him and questioned why he was not playing for a major club, and then he produces a monumental error. He will big amazing one match, but slip up in the next, and that is why I rate the more solid keepers like Tim Howard higher. That is the same for a number of their players – they will be superb one match, but shocking the next, and consistency is there issue.
I give the Danes the edge over them, but do not be shocked if they progress further than that. I must say though that I do not think the African sides will have too much of a ‘home’ advantage in this competition as is often considered as it shifts continent – weather is neutral if anything, and the pitches are good.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Denmark
I think the Danes are being slightly underrated in this group and in general and I think they can sneak the second spot. They have a bit of Japan (organisation) and a bit of Cameroon (flair) and combined I think they can edge the pair and take second place. They came top of a tough group ahead of the Swedes and Portugal, which shows what they can do.
They have a tough opening game against Holland, but I expect them to be unperturbed by any potential loss and bounce back. The squad is down to earth and they know they are competing with the other two for second place. They are a workmanlike squad, but possession some quality players such as youngster Christian Eriksen and Simon Kjaer. They are complemented by some experienced campaigners like Poulsen, Gronkjaer and Sorensen, and I like the general balance they have in the squad.
Going forward, Bendtner will surely play and I am far from being a fan of his. I can see him scoring a couple of cheeky goals among some shocking misses and being an important player for the team. I am not expecting fireworks from this team but a solid performance which should be enough to squeak them past Japan and Cameroon. It will not be easy and I feel as though the group is a tough one, but they can edge it for second even if that is as far as they go.
Prediction – Round 16
Holland
I am anticipating a typical Dutch performance in this World Cup. Some moments of brilliance, some beautiful attacking play, but will ultimately be let down defensively when they cannot outscore their opponent. Going forward, they will cause most teams plenty of trouble, and we can only hope that Arjen Robben is fit to play some part. I have said it to a couple of people recently but I genuinely believe that if Robben was not so injury prone, he would be considered one of the top five players in the world. I will never forget a story on Marca during his time at Real Madrid explaining how he picked up an injury playing ‘keepy-uppy’ in training – just an example of his fragility.
Combine him with Van der Vaart, Van Persie, and Sneijder and they are a hugely talented frontline which will score plenty of goals. I am not sure Van Persie is the right guy to play as the lone striker, but he will do a job for them.
It will be defensively that they have issues, and that has been the case for a couple of years. They will beat average teams comfortable, occasionally outscore some bigger teams, but they are not good enough defensively to beat 3-4 top class teams consecutively in major competitions. They will raise everybody’s hopes as they coast through their group, but they will manage to throw it all away with one poor performance in the knockout stage. I’ll go for quarter-finals for the Dutch.
Prediction – Quarters
Japan
Solid but certainly not spectacular is how I would describe the Japanese. They have more flair than the other Asian sides, but at the same time, they are probably not quite as solid as some of the others like South Korea. They have some talented players in Nakamura who can produce some moments of magic which may just help them unlock some defences.
I do however think they will just fall short. Cameroon will be a tough opponent for them and that is another game I will stay clear from in terms of betting. Denmark have greater all-round quality in my view, and will edge them in the race for second in my mind. Group stage is as far as they will go for me, but they will not be a pushover for anybody.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Cameroon
On paper, they are the strongest Africa side alongside Ivory Coast for me, and they could be the only two to qualify from Africa. It is a tough task ahead for them in a tricky group, but they will fight with Denmark for second spot.
They have a strong starting eleven on paper, with a strong core to the team but slightly lacking down the wings. That may be a factor when they come up against well organised sides like Japan and Denmark, and one of the reasons why I just fancy Denmark to edge them out. They will rely heavily on their full-backs to get forward but they generally lack quality down the wings, and that will make it tough for them at times to break teams down.
If all their players are on top form, they could grab second, if not, then they could fail miserably. Carlos Kameni is one of their players who I have followed closely during his career in Spain at Espanyol. So many times I have watched him and questioned why he was not playing for a major club, and then he produces a monumental error. He will big amazing one match, but slip up in the next, and that is why I rate the more solid keepers like Tim Howard higher. That is the same for a number of their players – they will be superb one match, but shocking the next, and consistency is there issue.
I give the Danes the edge over them, but do not be shocked if they progress further than that. I must say though that I do not think the African sides will have too much of a ‘home’ advantage in this competition as is often considered as it shifts continent – weather is neutral if anything, and the pitches are good.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Denmark
I think the Danes are being slightly underrated in this group and in general and I think they can sneak the second spot. They have a bit of Japan (organisation) and a bit of Cameroon (flair) and combined I think they can edge the pair and take second place. They came top of a tough group ahead of the Swedes and Portugal, which shows what they can do.
They have a tough opening game against Holland, but I expect them to be unperturbed by any potential loss and bounce back. The squad is down to earth and they know they are competing with the other two for second place. They are a workmanlike squad, but possession some quality players such as youngster Christian Eriksen and Simon Kjaer. They are complemented by some experienced campaigners like Poulsen, Gronkjaer and Sorensen, and I like the general balance they have in the squad.
Going forward, Bendtner will surely play and I am far from being a fan of his. I can see him scoring a couple of cheeky goals among some shocking misses and being an important player for the team. I am not expecting fireworks from this team but a solid performance which should be enough to squeak them past Japan and Cameroon. It will not be easy and I feel as though the group is a tough one, but they can edge it for second even if that is as far as they go.
Prediction – Round 16
Group D Analysis
Group D
Germany
The Germans come into this game without two pretty key players – both Michael Ballack and Rene Adler are out through injury and both will be missed. It does however hand opportunities, especially in midfield to some of their younger talented players such as Ozil, Marin and Kroos who could emerge to be gems at international level.
The German squad looks pretty solid as you would expect. At the back, they will be tough to break down, given good protection from the midfield. In goal, Adler would have been the starter, but Manuel Neuer is very good also – so many national teams would be desperate to have two quality options in goal.
The main issue in the German squad is in attack. None of their front men are in any form at all with Low deciding to leave Kuranyi at home due to a clash of personalities. Gomez is probably the better of a poor bunch, but he has had an injury disrupted season. While I do not overly like any of the German front men, they should receive good supply and support, and I can see one of them emerging with a handful of goals. Klose is a long way past his best, but if is provided with chances, he will take them.
I fully expect them to get through the group, but how much further I am not sure. Quarters is probably where I would place them, but as always, they could easily put a run together and get to the semis or even the final. They do not convince me enough pre-tournament that they will be able to put such a run together, so I will go with quarters.
Prediction - Quarters
Serbia
I love the look of the first choice Serbian team and on paper I would really back them to go far. Nikola Zigic will cause teams all kinds of problems with his height and if he can remain fit then he can emerge s a key player in the tournament. Throughout the team, particularly the spine, they look very strong – Vidic and Subotic is a very strong partnership at the back, while the midfield has great balance too. I am a big fan of Krasic also – he is being followed by a number of big teams and will be very keen to impress so watch out for him.
Two main question marks and potential weaknesses for me however. The goalkeeper Stojkovic is a liability. He can be brilliant or ridiculous, and I can see him making a major error at some point over the course of a few matches. He did not convince me at Wigan, and there is a legendary story after a trial at Everton. He joined training on a five-day trial, and was beaten twice by Tony Hibbert – the rest of the squad were laughing and hammering him and he walked out on the session and that was the last they saw of him.
The other issue is psychologically. They seem so fragile at times and give me little confidence in that respect. The kind of team that if things are not going well, they could fall apart spectacularly and always a side to be wary of when betting.
If everything goes well, they could surprise many and have a great tournament. If they face one or two issues, then they could be out in the groups. I would be very wary about betting on their games – volatile and unpredictable is how I would describe them. If they play to potential, they could reach the quarters, but I will reserve judgement now and go for Round of 16.
Prediction – Round of 16
Ghana
One of the weaker African nations in my view and Ghana are another team that I do not overly like the look of in this tournament. They struggled in qualification in two of the weaker groups in both rounds of qualifying and could easily have missed out to teams such as Gabon, Benin and Libya who all pushed them hard.
They keep faith with the likes of Stephen Appiah who is well past his sell by date, but he holds so much power and respect in the squad, that he keeps his place. They will rely heavily on the veterans like him and Mensah, but I have little faith in them really. Going forward they do not convince me neither. The likes of Gyan and Owusu-Obeyie will miss far more than they will score and I would be banking on them to convert too often.
That, along with the fact that they are missing Michael Essien, who I consider to be one of the best box-to-box midfielders in the world, suggest to me that they will find it hard here to make an impact.
While they have decent power and pace throughout the team, I think they are lacking in quality, and will struggle against strong sides like Germany who will be able to match their strengths, and beat them in other areas. I do not see them getting out of the groups.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Australia
I have a bit of a sport soft for the Aussies, a bit like the US and I admit that it does feel a bit dirty. I think the thing I like most about them (and the US) is that they are generally an honest team, who lack the flair of the big boys, but give their all, work hard as a team and never go missing. You are unlikely to find them diving around which is another positive in the attractiveness stakes.
They have a solid group of experienced players who will not be overawed. The likes of Schwarzer, Moore, Neill, Cahill, Emerton and Kewell all have good experience at the highest level and that will stand them well here. Similar to the US, we can expect a fully committed performance. I do however feel that they lack a little bit of firepower and scoring goals will prove to be too difficult to really make an impact and progress too far.
That is not to say they will be out after the group stage. They have a chance to battle with Serbia for second place. I just edge the Serbs however to grab that as they have the greater quality over the Aussies. They will gain more fans and praise for their performances, but will likely just fall short.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Germany
The Germans come into this game without two pretty key players – both Michael Ballack and Rene Adler are out through injury and both will be missed. It does however hand opportunities, especially in midfield to some of their younger talented players such as Ozil, Marin and Kroos who could emerge to be gems at international level.
The German squad looks pretty solid as you would expect. At the back, they will be tough to break down, given good protection from the midfield. In goal, Adler would have been the starter, but Manuel Neuer is very good also – so many national teams would be desperate to have two quality options in goal.
The main issue in the German squad is in attack. None of their front men are in any form at all with Low deciding to leave Kuranyi at home due to a clash of personalities. Gomez is probably the better of a poor bunch, but he has had an injury disrupted season. While I do not overly like any of the German front men, they should receive good supply and support, and I can see one of them emerging with a handful of goals. Klose is a long way past his best, but if is provided with chances, he will take them.
I fully expect them to get through the group, but how much further I am not sure. Quarters is probably where I would place them, but as always, they could easily put a run together and get to the semis or even the final. They do not convince me enough pre-tournament that they will be able to put such a run together, so I will go with quarters.
Prediction - Quarters
Serbia
I love the look of the first choice Serbian team and on paper I would really back them to go far. Nikola Zigic will cause teams all kinds of problems with his height and if he can remain fit then he can emerge s a key player in the tournament. Throughout the team, particularly the spine, they look very strong – Vidic and Subotic is a very strong partnership at the back, while the midfield has great balance too. I am a big fan of Krasic also – he is being followed by a number of big teams and will be very keen to impress so watch out for him.
Two main question marks and potential weaknesses for me however. The goalkeeper Stojkovic is a liability. He can be brilliant or ridiculous, and I can see him making a major error at some point over the course of a few matches. He did not convince me at Wigan, and there is a legendary story after a trial at Everton. He joined training on a five-day trial, and was beaten twice by Tony Hibbert – the rest of the squad were laughing and hammering him and he walked out on the session and that was the last they saw of him.
The other issue is psychologically. They seem so fragile at times and give me little confidence in that respect. The kind of team that if things are not going well, they could fall apart spectacularly and always a side to be wary of when betting.
If everything goes well, they could surprise many and have a great tournament. If they face one or two issues, then they could be out in the groups. I would be very wary about betting on their games – volatile and unpredictable is how I would describe them. If they play to potential, they could reach the quarters, but I will reserve judgement now and go for Round of 16.
Prediction – Round of 16
Ghana
One of the weaker African nations in my view and Ghana are another team that I do not overly like the look of in this tournament. They struggled in qualification in two of the weaker groups in both rounds of qualifying and could easily have missed out to teams such as Gabon, Benin and Libya who all pushed them hard.
They keep faith with the likes of Stephen Appiah who is well past his sell by date, but he holds so much power and respect in the squad, that he keeps his place. They will rely heavily on the veterans like him and Mensah, but I have little faith in them really. Going forward they do not convince me neither. The likes of Gyan and Owusu-Obeyie will miss far more than they will score and I would be banking on them to convert too often.
That, along with the fact that they are missing Michael Essien, who I consider to be one of the best box-to-box midfielders in the world, suggest to me that they will find it hard here to make an impact.
While they have decent power and pace throughout the team, I think they are lacking in quality, and will struggle against strong sides like Germany who will be able to match their strengths, and beat them in other areas. I do not see them getting out of the groups.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Australia
I have a bit of a sport soft for the Aussies, a bit like the US and I admit that it does feel a bit dirty. I think the thing I like most about them (and the US) is that they are generally an honest team, who lack the flair of the big boys, but give their all, work hard as a team and never go missing. You are unlikely to find them diving around which is another positive in the attractiveness stakes.
They have a solid group of experienced players who will not be overawed. The likes of Schwarzer, Moore, Neill, Cahill, Emerton and Kewell all have good experience at the highest level and that will stand them well here. Similar to the US, we can expect a fully committed performance. I do however feel that they lack a little bit of firepower and scoring goals will prove to be too difficult to really make an impact and progress too far.
That is not to say they will be out after the group stage. They have a chance to battle with Serbia for second place. I just edge the Serbs however to grab that as they have the greater quality over the Aussies. They will gain more fans and praise for their performances, but will likely just fall short.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Group C Analysis
Group C
England
Well, well, well, the time has come and let's see what England can do. I have had positive and negatives opinions on England in the build up to this tournament. The main plus for me is Capello. He is one of the few elite coaches in world football who has the respect and ability to coach this England team. He knows exactly what he is doing, and this is the first time in a long time that I have confidence in an England team responding to their manager like this. He has them drilled tactically and psychologically, and he is the main reason why I think we will see a stronger performance from England.
The other major positive is Wayne Rooney. I had doubts about his composure and finishing ability since I watched him as a 15-year-old - it is fair to say that he shot that view to pieces this season and has emerged as one of the best players in the world. England finally have a top class player who can make an impact at the very highest level and produce those moments of magic that they have lacked historically.
That optimism has been dampened by the loss of Rio Ferdinand which is a major loss. His mobility, timing and athleticism will be sorely missed - he is the only England defender and few defenders in the world that is completely comfortable and able to defend against forwards one-on-one. Form has not been great this season but I would have expected that he would have raised his game for this tournament. Instead, Dawson is called up, and I would guess that Ledley King will emerge as the partner for John Terry if he can stay fit. I consider it a negative now, unless King can find top form and stay fit for the knockout stages which is a tough ask.
There are plenty of other uncertainties also - the fitness of Gareth Barry, who will partner Rooney up front, what Fabio does with Lampard/Gerrard. Capello has to make some tough but correct calls and have some luck with injuries if they are to go far in this tournament. The starting eleven is pretty strong, but there is not too much else outside of that. He also needs one of the goalkeepers to find some form and consistency, which I would not be banking on too heavily.
With all that in mind, I would expect them to get through the groups reasonably comfortable - even if they have to wait until the last game to seal their route through. Avoiding Germany will be key for them - if they can do so, then a trip to the quarters or semis is possible, but no real change for me this time round even with Capello and Rooney. There will be that one game where they will heroically fall short.
Prediction – Quarters
USA
Whispering it quietly, but I have to admit to being a huge fan of this American team, and I genuinely think they can go far in the competition. There is so much focus on the first match against England but I actually do not think it is so important. I am confident both teams will qualify from this group.
Probably their biggest strength is their unity and attitude. The thing that impresses me most about them is how adept they are at dealing with different scenarios throughout games. I would actually compare them to Germany in many respects – no real superstars, strong team ethic, and the ability to make the right decisions and reactions at the right times which is absolutely vital in my view. It is unlikely you will see many amazing goals from them, but they have a good balance in the team and can do well here.
Two key men in this team for me – Tim Howard and Landon Donovan. After highlighting Pienaar for South Africa, and I’ll likely highlight Cahill for Australia too, perhaps I am being a little bias, but recall I consider Mascherano key for Argentina also! Howard will never be considered to be one of the best goalkeepers in the world, but he is as solid and consistent as they come, and I think he could have a big tournament here. Landycakes is a different animal. I think he has the ability and skill to really grab the headlines and be considered a world class player. Confidence is high and he will be flying in this event.
Outside of those two, not many of the squad play at major clubs nor could be considered to be stars in any shape of the imagination. They do however form an extremely strong unit, and they will be a match for anybody.
So much will depend on who finishes top of the group between them and England, but I see them going far in this competition...even as far as the semis. They are my outsiders and dark horses in this competition.
Prediction - Semis
Algeria
Algeria came through a ferocious battle, on and off the pitch (google or youtube it if you don't know what i am talking about!), with Egypt to qualify for this competition, and there is no question that they deserve to be here as much as anybody. Being here may be slightly different and I will be interested to see how they react on such a stage. I cannot have many question marks if any after seeing them survive the qualification however.
There are no doubts neither as to how they will approach the tournament. They scored 17 goals in 13 qualifying games and conceded only 8 which says it all about their style of play. They have some talented players defensively, but very little going forward, and I suspect that will be even more evident at this level. Bougherra is a key man for them at the back, and he will have to be at his very best if they are to have any chance in the group.
The major issue I think they will have against the likes of the US and England will be physically and in the air. That is one area which I think will be a determining factor against those two and potentially even Slovenia. I do not hold out much hope for them, and I suspect we will see some pretty negative tactics from them to try to grab a point or two, but they will fall well short in the end.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Slovenia
If anybody told me they would have finished ahead of the Czechs in qualifying and then beat Russia in a play-off, I would probably have curled up on the floor laughing. The achievement for them was purely getting this far, whether they can do anything when they arrive, I very much doubt.
Similarly to the Algerians, their qualification was based on edging games with the odd goal and keeping things rock solid at the back. Conceding four goals only in a group containing Slovakia, Czechs and Poland is some achievement. They will be faced with a significant increase in quality of opposition here, and I think they will find it very difficult to get much out of England and the US.
No superstars in this team, but look out for Rene Krhin – a young playmaking midfielder who has the potential to become pretty special. Otherwise, you’re going to see a strong team effort, but one which will fall short of really challenging the big two here. Their only real chance will be if they can somehow take a lead against either of them – if they do, they will be extremely tough to break down.
If there is one thing to take from this analysis, and if there is one game you have to miss, Algeria v Slovenia on Sunday is the one!
Prediction – Group stage Only
England
Well, well, well, the time has come and let's see what England can do. I have had positive and negatives opinions on England in the build up to this tournament. The main plus for me is Capello. He is one of the few elite coaches in world football who has the respect and ability to coach this England team. He knows exactly what he is doing, and this is the first time in a long time that I have confidence in an England team responding to their manager like this. He has them drilled tactically and psychologically, and he is the main reason why I think we will see a stronger performance from England.
The other major positive is Wayne Rooney. I had doubts about his composure and finishing ability since I watched him as a 15-year-old - it is fair to say that he shot that view to pieces this season and has emerged as one of the best players in the world. England finally have a top class player who can make an impact at the very highest level and produce those moments of magic that they have lacked historically.
That optimism has been dampened by the loss of Rio Ferdinand which is a major loss. His mobility, timing and athleticism will be sorely missed - he is the only England defender and few defenders in the world that is completely comfortable and able to defend against forwards one-on-one. Form has not been great this season but I would have expected that he would have raised his game for this tournament. Instead, Dawson is called up, and I would guess that Ledley King will emerge as the partner for John Terry if he can stay fit. I consider it a negative now, unless King can find top form and stay fit for the knockout stages which is a tough ask.
There are plenty of other uncertainties also - the fitness of Gareth Barry, who will partner Rooney up front, what Fabio does with Lampard/Gerrard. Capello has to make some tough but correct calls and have some luck with injuries if they are to go far in this tournament. The starting eleven is pretty strong, but there is not too much else outside of that. He also needs one of the goalkeepers to find some form and consistency, which I would not be banking on too heavily.
With all that in mind, I would expect them to get through the groups reasonably comfortable - even if they have to wait until the last game to seal their route through. Avoiding Germany will be key for them - if they can do so, then a trip to the quarters or semis is possible, but no real change for me this time round even with Capello and Rooney. There will be that one game where they will heroically fall short.
Prediction – Quarters
USA
Whispering it quietly, but I have to admit to being a huge fan of this American team, and I genuinely think they can go far in the competition. There is so much focus on the first match against England but I actually do not think it is so important. I am confident both teams will qualify from this group.
Probably their biggest strength is their unity and attitude. The thing that impresses me most about them is how adept they are at dealing with different scenarios throughout games. I would actually compare them to Germany in many respects – no real superstars, strong team ethic, and the ability to make the right decisions and reactions at the right times which is absolutely vital in my view. It is unlikely you will see many amazing goals from them, but they have a good balance in the team and can do well here.
Two key men in this team for me – Tim Howard and Landon Donovan. After highlighting Pienaar for South Africa, and I’ll likely highlight Cahill for Australia too, perhaps I am being a little bias, but recall I consider Mascherano key for Argentina also! Howard will never be considered to be one of the best goalkeepers in the world, but he is as solid and consistent as they come, and I think he could have a big tournament here. Landycakes is a different animal. I think he has the ability and skill to really grab the headlines and be considered a world class player. Confidence is high and he will be flying in this event.
Outside of those two, not many of the squad play at major clubs nor could be considered to be stars in any shape of the imagination. They do however form an extremely strong unit, and they will be a match for anybody.
So much will depend on who finishes top of the group between them and England, but I see them going far in this competition...even as far as the semis. They are my outsiders and dark horses in this competition.
Prediction - Semis
Algeria
Algeria came through a ferocious battle, on and off the pitch (google or youtube it if you don't know what i am talking about!), with Egypt to qualify for this competition, and there is no question that they deserve to be here as much as anybody. Being here may be slightly different and I will be interested to see how they react on such a stage. I cannot have many question marks if any after seeing them survive the qualification however.
There are no doubts neither as to how they will approach the tournament. They scored 17 goals in 13 qualifying games and conceded only 8 which says it all about their style of play. They have some talented players defensively, but very little going forward, and I suspect that will be even more evident at this level. Bougherra is a key man for them at the back, and he will have to be at his very best if they are to have any chance in the group.
The major issue I think they will have against the likes of the US and England will be physically and in the air. That is one area which I think will be a determining factor against those two and potentially even Slovenia. I do not hold out much hope for them, and I suspect we will see some pretty negative tactics from them to try to grab a point or two, but they will fall well short in the end.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Slovenia
If anybody told me they would have finished ahead of the Czechs in qualifying and then beat Russia in a play-off, I would probably have curled up on the floor laughing. The achievement for them was purely getting this far, whether they can do anything when they arrive, I very much doubt.
Similarly to the Algerians, their qualification was based on edging games with the odd goal and keeping things rock solid at the back. Conceding four goals only in a group containing Slovakia, Czechs and Poland is some achievement. They will be faced with a significant increase in quality of opposition here, and I think they will find it very difficult to get much out of England and the US.
No superstars in this team, but look out for Rene Krhin – a young playmaking midfielder who has the potential to become pretty special. Otherwise, you’re going to see a strong team effort, but one which will fall short of really challenging the big two here. Their only real chance will be if they can somehow take a lead against either of them – if they do, they will be extremely tough to break down.
If there is one thing to take from this analysis, and if there is one game you have to miss, Algeria v Slovenia on Sunday is the one!
Prediction – Group stage Only
Friday, June 11, 2010
Group B Analysis
Group B
Argentina
If it is attacking quality, flair and pure brilliance you are looking for, then look no further than Argentina. On paper they have the best attack in the competition bar none - Messi, Tevez, Aguero, Milito, Higuain, Di Maria - it is pretty fearsome. The question is, who does Maradona start with?! Messi is a starter obviously, but then the rest is up for grabs right now, but mixing and blending the forwards is the only possible negative in such a talented area of the team.
Talking about negatives, that is the only way I can describe Maradona himself. He is a loose cannon to say the very least, and one can only have serious question marks about how he reacts when faced with adversity. Tactically as well, he has certainly not proven himself yet nor worked out his preferred way of playing in terms of formation.
The biggest issue I have with him and the team is at the back. He will likely play with three natural CB's - Demichelis, Samuel and Heinze, and they will find it hard to confronted by lively forwards with good movement. That is unlikely to happen in the group stage, but could be an issue in the later rounds.
The key player in the team for me however is Javier Mascherano. His role of destroyer and sitting in front of the defence will be fundamental to the team, and as good as Messi and company are, they do not have anybody else in the squad as good or as effective as Mascherano in such a key position.
I can see this team going a long way as long as Maradona holds it together, and I have them going as far as the semis. A team with this much attacking talent should have the ability to beat most mediocre teams - anything less than semis has to be considered a failure in my mind.
Prediction – Semis
Nigeria
I always expect positive things from Nigeria and I am always let down. This time around, I actually do not like them at all. That is not because I am fed up of them letting me down, but the team is so disjointed and lacking in belief, that I cannot like them at all here. The team does not have the names nor the quality that they have had in the last decade, and they are going through something of a rebuilding period.
It was interesting to read Maradona’s comments about Nigeria having a decent attack but a questionable defence. I completely disagree. I think they will actually focus on their defence and it is reasonably well marshalled by Yobo, but going forward, they are severely lacking in my view. Yakubu seems set to start as the lone striker and he has really struggled since returning from the year-long absence due to a ruptured Achilles. They have options in Martins, Obinna, Utaka and Odemwingie, but none of them really come into this tournament in any real form.
I think we will see two different Nigeria’s here. Against Argentina, I think they will massively fear the likes of Messi and company, and they will play ultra defensive with 8/9 men behind the ball at all times. Against the other two teams in the group, they will have to come out and play, and I do not particularly like their chances there neither as I think it will unsettle them. I also do not like how they play when they go behind. Unlike the more disciplined Asian sides, Nigeria become ragged when they go behind as they launch men forward, so another reason to be careful when betting in their matches for example.
They have a chance of getting through the group, but I doubt they would go further even if they do. I think they will fall short, and it will inevitably be decided between the games between them, Greece and South Korea. I prefer to go with South Korea, and potentially Greece who just have the better game plan and tactics.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Greece
Possibly the most negative side in world football (sorry but it’s true mate!) have a solid chance of getting through this group but they will not earn any new supporters with their style of play. The focus will be on maximising set pieces and praying that Gekas hits form as he did in the qualifying. None of it will be pretty, but it has certainly proved effective for them at times under Rehhagel.
I was impressed that they were able to overcome Ukraine in the qualifying play-off, a goalless draw at home followed by a 0-1 in Kyiv was an outstanding result for them. I do however think that they were in a fairly weak group, and coming second behind the Swiss was nothing too special given their opponents.
What they will do is make it difficult for their opponents, and will likely be involved in low scoring games. They possibly have a fraction more threat offensively than South Korea, but they have a fairly old squad and I think some of them may struggle at times against the pace, power and work rate of their opponents. I just give South Korea the edge narrowly over them, but so much depends on that game between the two.
Prediction – Group stage Only
South Korea
These boys have a fair bit going for them as they come into this tournament. Their form is good, they qualified comfortably and their confidence is good. Their organisation and work rate is second to none – which is only enhanced by the fact that the team and squad has been pretty settled for a couple of years.
They are my favourites to compete with Greece for the second spot behind Argentina. I give them the edge as I have more faith in them – I know what to expect and what we will see from them. I cannot say the same for Nigeria at all, and to a lesser extent Greece. I think they can take advantage of Nigeria, but the game against Greece could be fundamental to their chances, and that is their first match on Saturday. The one concern I have about them which at the same time is a major strength for Greece is their lack of aerial strength. They do not have a particularly tall defence, and they may have issues dealing with the Greeks who have height in abundance be it in open play or set pieces. That will be a key issue for them to deal with if they want to be successful. I just give them the edge in the game and in the group to steal second place, but it will not be easy at all.
Prediction – Round of 16
Argentina
If it is attacking quality, flair and pure brilliance you are looking for, then look no further than Argentina. On paper they have the best attack in the competition bar none - Messi, Tevez, Aguero, Milito, Higuain, Di Maria - it is pretty fearsome. The question is, who does Maradona start with?! Messi is a starter obviously, but then the rest is up for grabs right now, but mixing and blending the forwards is the only possible negative in such a talented area of the team.
Talking about negatives, that is the only way I can describe Maradona himself. He is a loose cannon to say the very least, and one can only have serious question marks about how he reacts when faced with adversity. Tactically as well, he has certainly not proven himself yet nor worked out his preferred way of playing in terms of formation.
The biggest issue I have with him and the team is at the back. He will likely play with three natural CB's - Demichelis, Samuel and Heinze, and they will find it hard to confronted by lively forwards with good movement. That is unlikely to happen in the group stage, but could be an issue in the later rounds.
The key player in the team for me however is Javier Mascherano. His role of destroyer and sitting in front of the defence will be fundamental to the team, and as good as Messi and company are, they do not have anybody else in the squad as good or as effective as Mascherano in such a key position.
I can see this team going a long way as long as Maradona holds it together, and I have them going as far as the semis. A team with this much attacking talent should have the ability to beat most mediocre teams - anything less than semis has to be considered a failure in my mind.
Prediction – Semis
Nigeria
I always expect positive things from Nigeria and I am always let down. This time around, I actually do not like them at all. That is not because I am fed up of them letting me down, but the team is so disjointed and lacking in belief, that I cannot like them at all here. The team does not have the names nor the quality that they have had in the last decade, and they are going through something of a rebuilding period.
It was interesting to read Maradona’s comments about Nigeria having a decent attack but a questionable defence. I completely disagree. I think they will actually focus on their defence and it is reasonably well marshalled by Yobo, but going forward, they are severely lacking in my view. Yakubu seems set to start as the lone striker and he has really struggled since returning from the year-long absence due to a ruptured Achilles. They have options in Martins, Obinna, Utaka and Odemwingie, but none of them really come into this tournament in any real form.
I think we will see two different Nigeria’s here. Against Argentina, I think they will massively fear the likes of Messi and company, and they will play ultra defensive with 8/9 men behind the ball at all times. Against the other two teams in the group, they will have to come out and play, and I do not particularly like their chances there neither as I think it will unsettle them. I also do not like how they play when they go behind. Unlike the more disciplined Asian sides, Nigeria become ragged when they go behind as they launch men forward, so another reason to be careful when betting in their matches for example.
They have a chance of getting through the group, but I doubt they would go further even if they do. I think they will fall short, and it will inevitably be decided between the games between them, Greece and South Korea. I prefer to go with South Korea, and potentially Greece who just have the better game plan and tactics.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Greece
Possibly the most negative side in world football (sorry but it’s true mate!) have a solid chance of getting through this group but they will not earn any new supporters with their style of play. The focus will be on maximising set pieces and praying that Gekas hits form as he did in the qualifying. None of it will be pretty, but it has certainly proved effective for them at times under Rehhagel.
I was impressed that they were able to overcome Ukraine in the qualifying play-off, a goalless draw at home followed by a 0-1 in Kyiv was an outstanding result for them. I do however think that they were in a fairly weak group, and coming second behind the Swiss was nothing too special given their opponents.
What they will do is make it difficult for their opponents, and will likely be involved in low scoring games. They possibly have a fraction more threat offensively than South Korea, but they have a fairly old squad and I think some of them may struggle at times against the pace, power and work rate of their opponents. I just give South Korea the edge narrowly over them, but so much depends on that game between the two.
Prediction – Group stage Only
South Korea
These boys have a fair bit going for them as they come into this tournament. Their form is good, they qualified comfortably and their confidence is good. Their organisation and work rate is second to none – which is only enhanced by the fact that the team and squad has been pretty settled for a couple of years.
They are my favourites to compete with Greece for the second spot behind Argentina. I give them the edge as I have more faith in them – I know what to expect and what we will see from them. I cannot say the same for Nigeria at all, and to a lesser extent Greece. I think they can take advantage of Nigeria, but the game against Greece could be fundamental to their chances, and that is their first match on Saturday. The one concern I have about them which at the same time is a major strength for Greece is their lack of aerial strength. They do not have a particularly tall defence, and they may have issues dealing with the Greeks who have height in abundance be it in open play or set pieces. That will be a key issue for them to deal with if they want to be successful. I just give them the edge in the game and in the group to steal second place, but it will not be easy at all.
Prediction – Round of 16
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Group A Analysis
Just in case anybody was not aware, there is actually a World Cup starting on Friday. When I was a boy, I collected all the newspaper pull outs, I collected Panini stickers....heck I still do. In my previous employments, I prepared player lists, worked on articles, wrote analysis of matches in the build up to the tournament and during. It would seem rude not to continue that, so why break a habit of a lifetime. Here’s my breakdown of the teams and views.
Group A
South Africa
I fear for the South Africans in much the same way I feared for Poland in Euro 2008 but probably even more so – at least Poland had the Swiss to take up some of the ‘host’ slack. Over the last couple of years, South Africa have been pretty woeful. They struggled badly in qualifying for the last African Cup of Nations, and failed to reach the final tournament, and the quality of their performances has been alarming to say the least. Bringing Parreira back in October 2009 was a clear sign of just how desperate the SAFA were, and although there has been a slight improvement in friendly results, I cannot read too much into that.
They have been scheduling as many friendly matches as feasibly possible, at times when the opposition have been using those matches to test younger players, formations etc – analysing the line-ups, so many of them fielded weakened teams so results if anything probably flatter them.
The one positive for them is that the global expectations of them are low. Undoubtedly there will be pressure within the country, but otherwise nobody is really expecting too much from them in this tournament.
I expect three brave performances from them. They will work as hard as anybody, and will clearly base their play on good organisation, a high tempo game of closing the opposition down, and relying on counter attacks to steal a goal. I expect their opponents to have trouble breaking them down – but each one of their group rivals has sufficient individual ability and firepower to break them at some point.
Offensively, unfortunately there will be far too much reliance of Steven Pienaar. He is their one top class attacking player and I just fear that if the opposition close him down and stop him, they will stop a major part of the team’s threat. Their other threat will be from set pieces, and they could cause the Mexicans especially problems in that department.
I anticipate them being involved in low scoring matches, certainly initially, but I would not expect to see them fighting back in matches. The three group opponents just have too much ability on the ball and in keeping possession, that it will be too difficult for the South Africans to put them under sustained pressure and create too many chances. Their best hope will be keeping the game tight and trying to nick a goal. Even if they go a goal behind, I would not expect a kamikaze response – Parreira is not stupid and he knows the team’s limitations.
I would be surprised if they come anything other than bottom of Group A. We will see some brave performances, they may sneak a point with their best chance coming in the opening game against Mexico in my view or in the third game if there is nothing at stake. There will be no shame for them, but they simply do not have the quality to challenge here.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Mexico
I have been paying a fair amount of attention to the Mexicans in qualification and in the build up to this event for a number of reasons. The Concacaf qualification is almost always dominated by the US and Mexico, but this time around it was more uncomfortable for Mexico largely due to good old Sven than it really should have been. Bringing Aguirre is was the best decision they could have made – I rate him highly as a coach from his days in Spain, and any longer with Sven and they could have missed out completely.
Instead, Aguirre rallied the troops and has got them playing good football and relatively united. The omission of Jonathan dos Santos reportedly upset his brother Giovani who is becoming an important player for the team, but I would expect that storm to blow over. Otherwise, there are question marks over the lack of match time for Andres Guardado – is Aguirre being over protective with his star man due to his injury-proneness, or is he planning on using him sparingly and trusting other players more so? I suspect it is more the former, as he is too good to leave out at a WC. Another player I rate highly, far more than Giovani, but his form and fitness over the last 12-18 months has not been great.
Veteran legend Blanco is still knocking about, usually smoking, drinking, partying hard, and producing cameos and moments of brilliance every so often. He will only play for 20-30 minutes maximum, but still important to the squad. He along with goalkeeper Perez, are the two old men in the squad, adding some experience to a pretty young team otherwise – many of which come from the U17 side which won the World Champs in 2005. That is a slight concern for me – experience in big matches.
I do have a number of concerns about them – they look vulnerable from set pieces, the goalkeeper looks somewhat erratic at times and is probably not the best choice from the three in their squad, and I do wonder about them psychologically at times. That all said, there are a number of major positives going for them – they have some solid players at the back, all of whom have experience of playing in Europe, Rafael Marquez will anchor the midfield and his presence will be key, and they have some fantastically talented and lively forwards who will be able to cause problems for most teams.
I can see them pushing very hard with France and Uruguay, but I just give Uruguay a slight edge to pip them for second – that is purely on them possessing a fraction more experience all-round at the highest level, and having a natural world class striker in Forlan. The peak for this squad is probably 2014, but they can still have a strong tournament here, and cause an upset or two. I have them to finish third, but I would not be surprised if they edge either of France or Uruguay out.
Prediction – Group stage Only (Just!)
France
Most people are expecting the French to skip through this group but I doubt they will have it all their own way, and even if they do, I do not hold out too much hope for them. The squad is pretty good – no real doubt about that, and fair to say that it is the superior one in the group. Ribery, Lloris, and Malouda are all top class, and come into this competition in good shape. Gourcuff and Anelka also, but considering that neither is not considered to be a guaranteed starter in my mind shows the old tendencies by Domenech to stick with his old and trusted players such as Henry.
The coach is one of their major weaknesses in my mind, and we will see how his selections go. The starting eleven is far from certain and some sub-par performances early in the tournament will see him come under pressure to give the likes of Anelka and Gourcuff more time. I think the players have doubts about him, and given that he is leaving after this tournament, any adversity or questionable calls from him, could cause a rebellion in the squad.
The other main weakness in the team is in defence. Gallas has had fitness troubles but will start if fit, and there are doubts about the likes of Abidal and Sagna who have not had the best of seasons. Domenech could go with Toulalan alongside Gallas, or Squillaci, but either way, I think the uncertainty does not help them, and will be an issue when they are challenged by some talented forwards.
I do not overly like them too much these days, but I see them having enough to get through the group, probably top. Their possible route for the knockout phase is potentially one of the easier ones – but I can see them being taken out at some point possibly around the quarters. If they go further, I would not be too surprised, purely as an experienced team with some individual brilliance from Ribery and Gourcuff, but they need those players to be on top form and for Domenech to make the right calls at the right time – otherwise it could be a shockingly poor campaign. I see enough potential weaknesses that could turn into major ones, and they can be exploited unless they hit top form.
Prediction – Quarters
Uruguay
Uruguay scraped through qualifying via a play-off match with Costa Rica, and have not been overly convincing in the last couple of years combining some excellent results with some woeful. They come into this competition in reasonable shape, spearheaded by Diego Forlan who has had another excellent season in Spain.
I envisage they will have a battle with Mexico for second place, and the main reason I give them the edge is Forlan. He could have an excellent competition, and alternatively the coverage that teams put on him may free Luis Suarez to profit from.
Defensively they are strong also and Lugano and Godin will form a solid partnership. I wonder about the midfield however, and I suspect they will resort to tactical fouling to stop more talented opposition midfielders and forwards so discipline could be an issue in some games. Creativity from midfield may also be a weakness but they will focus on getting the ball up to the front two and then relying on wing play to open their attacks on the counter.
They do however have the defensive ability to frustrate teams and the firepower to score goals. Both combined tell me they have edge in the group, but even if they do progress they may have a tough task to go much further. I predict a second place finish and then a possible match with Argentina which is where their campaign will come to an end in my view. It could be earlier if Forlan and Suarez are not producing the goods.
Prediction – Round of 16
Group A
South Africa
I fear for the South Africans in much the same way I feared for Poland in Euro 2008 but probably even more so – at least Poland had the Swiss to take up some of the ‘host’ slack. Over the last couple of years, South Africa have been pretty woeful. They struggled badly in qualifying for the last African Cup of Nations, and failed to reach the final tournament, and the quality of their performances has been alarming to say the least. Bringing Parreira back in October 2009 was a clear sign of just how desperate the SAFA were, and although there has been a slight improvement in friendly results, I cannot read too much into that.
They have been scheduling as many friendly matches as feasibly possible, at times when the opposition have been using those matches to test younger players, formations etc – analysing the line-ups, so many of them fielded weakened teams so results if anything probably flatter them.
The one positive for them is that the global expectations of them are low. Undoubtedly there will be pressure within the country, but otherwise nobody is really expecting too much from them in this tournament.
I expect three brave performances from them. They will work as hard as anybody, and will clearly base their play on good organisation, a high tempo game of closing the opposition down, and relying on counter attacks to steal a goal. I expect their opponents to have trouble breaking them down – but each one of their group rivals has sufficient individual ability and firepower to break them at some point.
Offensively, unfortunately there will be far too much reliance of Steven Pienaar. He is their one top class attacking player and I just fear that if the opposition close him down and stop him, they will stop a major part of the team’s threat. Their other threat will be from set pieces, and they could cause the Mexicans especially problems in that department.
I anticipate them being involved in low scoring matches, certainly initially, but I would not expect to see them fighting back in matches. The three group opponents just have too much ability on the ball and in keeping possession, that it will be too difficult for the South Africans to put them under sustained pressure and create too many chances. Their best hope will be keeping the game tight and trying to nick a goal. Even if they go a goal behind, I would not expect a kamikaze response – Parreira is not stupid and he knows the team’s limitations.
I would be surprised if they come anything other than bottom of Group A. We will see some brave performances, they may sneak a point with their best chance coming in the opening game against Mexico in my view or in the third game if there is nothing at stake. There will be no shame for them, but they simply do not have the quality to challenge here.
Prediction – Group stage Only
Mexico
I have been paying a fair amount of attention to the Mexicans in qualification and in the build up to this event for a number of reasons. The Concacaf qualification is almost always dominated by the US and Mexico, but this time around it was more uncomfortable for Mexico largely due to good old Sven than it really should have been. Bringing Aguirre is was the best decision they could have made – I rate him highly as a coach from his days in Spain, and any longer with Sven and they could have missed out completely.
Instead, Aguirre rallied the troops and has got them playing good football and relatively united. The omission of Jonathan dos Santos reportedly upset his brother Giovani who is becoming an important player for the team, but I would expect that storm to blow over. Otherwise, there are question marks over the lack of match time for Andres Guardado – is Aguirre being over protective with his star man due to his injury-proneness, or is he planning on using him sparingly and trusting other players more so? I suspect it is more the former, as he is too good to leave out at a WC. Another player I rate highly, far more than Giovani, but his form and fitness over the last 12-18 months has not been great.
Veteran legend Blanco is still knocking about, usually smoking, drinking, partying hard, and producing cameos and moments of brilliance every so often. He will only play for 20-30 minutes maximum, but still important to the squad. He along with goalkeeper Perez, are the two old men in the squad, adding some experience to a pretty young team otherwise – many of which come from the U17 side which won the World Champs in 2005. That is a slight concern for me – experience in big matches.
I do have a number of concerns about them – they look vulnerable from set pieces, the goalkeeper looks somewhat erratic at times and is probably not the best choice from the three in their squad, and I do wonder about them psychologically at times. That all said, there are a number of major positives going for them – they have some solid players at the back, all of whom have experience of playing in Europe, Rafael Marquez will anchor the midfield and his presence will be key, and they have some fantastically talented and lively forwards who will be able to cause problems for most teams.
I can see them pushing very hard with France and Uruguay, but I just give Uruguay a slight edge to pip them for second – that is purely on them possessing a fraction more experience all-round at the highest level, and having a natural world class striker in Forlan. The peak for this squad is probably 2014, but they can still have a strong tournament here, and cause an upset or two. I have them to finish third, but I would not be surprised if they edge either of France or Uruguay out.
Prediction – Group stage Only (Just!)
France
Most people are expecting the French to skip through this group but I doubt they will have it all their own way, and even if they do, I do not hold out too much hope for them. The squad is pretty good – no real doubt about that, and fair to say that it is the superior one in the group. Ribery, Lloris, and Malouda are all top class, and come into this competition in good shape. Gourcuff and Anelka also, but considering that neither is not considered to be a guaranteed starter in my mind shows the old tendencies by Domenech to stick with his old and trusted players such as Henry.
The coach is one of their major weaknesses in my mind, and we will see how his selections go. The starting eleven is far from certain and some sub-par performances early in the tournament will see him come under pressure to give the likes of Anelka and Gourcuff more time. I think the players have doubts about him, and given that he is leaving after this tournament, any adversity or questionable calls from him, could cause a rebellion in the squad.
The other main weakness in the team is in defence. Gallas has had fitness troubles but will start if fit, and there are doubts about the likes of Abidal and Sagna who have not had the best of seasons. Domenech could go with Toulalan alongside Gallas, or Squillaci, but either way, I think the uncertainty does not help them, and will be an issue when they are challenged by some talented forwards.
I do not overly like them too much these days, but I see them having enough to get through the group, probably top. Their possible route for the knockout phase is potentially one of the easier ones – but I can see them being taken out at some point possibly around the quarters. If they go further, I would not be too surprised, purely as an experienced team with some individual brilliance from Ribery and Gourcuff, but they need those players to be on top form and for Domenech to make the right calls at the right time – otherwise it could be a shockingly poor campaign. I see enough potential weaknesses that could turn into major ones, and they can be exploited unless they hit top form.
Prediction – Quarters
Uruguay
Uruguay scraped through qualifying via a play-off match with Costa Rica, and have not been overly convincing in the last couple of years combining some excellent results with some woeful. They come into this competition in reasonable shape, spearheaded by Diego Forlan who has had another excellent season in Spain.
I envisage they will have a battle with Mexico for second place, and the main reason I give them the edge is Forlan. He could have an excellent competition, and alternatively the coverage that teams put on him may free Luis Suarez to profit from.
Defensively they are strong also and Lugano and Godin will form a solid partnership. I wonder about the midfield however, and I suspect they will resort to tactical fouling to stop more talented opposition midfielders and forwards so discipline could be an issue in some games. Creativity from midfield may also be a weakness but they will focus on getting the ball up to the front two and then relying on wing play to open their attacks on the counter.
They do however have the defensive ability to frustrate teams and the firepower to score goals. Both combined tell me they have edge in the group, but even if they do progress they may have a tough task to go much further. I predict a second place finish and then a possible match with Argentina which is where their campaign will come to an end in my view. It could be earlier if Forlan and Suarez are not producing the goods.
Prediction – Round of 16
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Cutting Some Slack
What do you want to be when you grow up? A big question, and not an easy one for so many of us to answer. I actually think it is easier to work out what we do not want to do - and often that means doing a job, and finding out the hard way that it is just not for you. Over the last few weeks, I’ve been thinking about what I consider to be one of the hardest jobs around, and one which I have no desire to even consider for any amount of money. I have had a number of conversations and meeting about and with referees, and I genuinely do not envy those guys at all.
At the Europa League final in Hamburg, I spent some time with the referee Nicola Rizzoli both before and after the game, and I found him to be an incredibly good guy. Extremely friendly and polite, and willing to be interviewed, photographed, and professional when it came to our official duties. I expected a harder time – indeed, surely it would have been had the game been different. Thankfully, it was probably one of the easier games to referee despite the cold temperatures and driving rain.
Fast forward a week at the Under-17’s event, and we had lunch each day with a handful of referees, all of whom seemed pleasant and professional. Spending time with them all and getting to know some of them was a learning curve for me. The guy who is usually stood on his own in the middle of a field of grass, the one usually called every name under the sun, is just another guy.
In general, these guys are in no-win situations. If they are not noticed or the game is quiet from their perspective, nobody makes much of a fuss about how well they did. We generally only ever hear about them when something has gone wrong, or a decision has been made which has upset one set of fans.
The guys at the elite levels are probably the lucky ones even if the spotlight they are under is something I would avoid at all costs. The ones who I genuinely feel for are those refereeing at amateur level either doing it for the love of the game or trying to work their way up the ladder. The stories and incidents involving referees and how they are treated is nothing short of appalling. The number of referees who are attacked and abused is absolutely horrendous. It is a major issue in England and I was shocked to hear several similar cases in Switzerland where referees have been attacked, purposely hit by cars after games in car parks, and so on.
Why would anybody even consider being a referee when stuff like this is happening? I have absolutely no idea. We will face a problem, it exists already but it will become worse, where it is increasingly harder to attract young people into officiating. There is not much that can change at the top level at there will always be such media scrutiny with so many eyes from across the world on the one guy in the middle, but something has to be done at amateur level.
I was as guilty as the next kid when I was young in terms of giving referees a hard time, purely verbally. I feel bad about it now to be honest. That was not even anywhere near as bad as physical abuse and threats which occur every single week all over the world. It is no fun when a decision goes against you and your team – whether it is right or wrong. It is even worse playing a game without a referee. I do not envy them at all, and I have the utmost respect for what they do. I am certainly mellowing in my old age, but I hate the treatment they are given and people should think twice before they hurl such crap at them. They are just normal guys doing their job.
At the Europa League final in Hamburg, I spent some time with the referee Nicola Rizzoli both before and after the game, and I found him to be an incredibly good guy. Extremely friendly and polite, and willing to be interviewed, photographed, and professional when it came to our official duties. I expected a harder time – indeed, surely it would have been had the game been different. Thankfully, it was probably one of the easier games to referee despite the cold temperatures and driving rain.
Fast forward a week at the Under-17’s event, and we had lunch each day with a handful of referees, all of whom seemed pleasant and professional. Spending time with them all and getting to know some of them was a learning curve for me. The guy who is usually stood on his own in the middle of a field of grass, the one usually called every name under the sun, is just another guy.
In general, these guys are in no-win situations. If they are not noticed or the game is quiet from their perspective, nobody makes much of a fuss about how well they did. We generally only ever hear about them when something has gone wrong, or a decision has been made which has upset one set of fans.
The guys at the elite levels are probably the lucky ones even if the spotlight they are under is something I would avoid at all costs. The ones who I genuinely feel for are those refereeing at amateur level either doing it for the love of the game or trying to work their way up the ladder. The stories and incidents involving referees and how they are treated is nothing short of appalling. The number of referees who are attacked and abused is absolutely horrendous. It is a major issue in England and I was shocked to hear several similar cases in Switzerland where referees have been attacked, purposely hit by cars after games in car parks, and so on.
Why would anybody even consider being a referee when stuff like this is happening? I have absolutely no idea. We will face a problem, it exists already but it will become worse, where it is increasingly harder to attract young people into officiating. There is not much that can change at the top level at there will always be such media scrutiny with so many eyes from across the world on the one guy in the middle, but something has to be done at amateur level.
I was as guilty as the next kid when I was young in terms of giving referees a hard time, purely verbally. I feel bad about it now to be honest. That was not even anywhere near as bad as physical abuse and threats which occur every single week all over the world. It is no fun when a decision goes against you and your team – whether it is right or wrong. It is even worse playing a game without a referee. I do not envy them at all, and I have the utmost respect for what they do. I am certainly mellowing in my old age, but I hate the treatment they are given and people should think twice before they hurl such crap at them. They are just normal guys doing their job.
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