Super Sunday

There are very few weeks that pass by that my dad doesn’t ask me what teams and matches to bet on. He usually rattles off the 7-team accumulator he has put a cheeky quid on, and I’ll tell him that makes no sense or gives no value, and he usually ignores me. He asked me on Monday for a Superbowl bet, so he’s going to have to read this blog if he wants a prediction of mine to ignore!

I’m sure the term has been coined years previously but when Sky used ‘Super Sunday’ to describe their football schedule when the Premier League first started, they were on to something. Not the most complex of phrases to come up, but it was just one of those simple phrases that just worked.

So, I’m sat scribbling this blog right now, with Murray v Djokovic on the ipad on SkyGo, I have the England v Australia cricket on the laptop, and I’m watching UFC from last night as live. There’s two reasonable football matches on in the afternoon, though I am already predicting that Southampton v Swansea may be the optimal time for a cheeky afternoon nap. The day is then capped by the Superbowl tonight…..it doesn’t get any more super I guess. Well, I could be driving from Vegas for the UFC to Phoenix….that could be make it a fraction more super, but I’m saving my silliness for later in the year despite the encouragement of a lot of bad bad people.

I’ve been known to attend a sporting event or two in my time, and I’d really struggle to rank them the different types of events in terms of preference. That may be another blog post. Whether it’s the Olympics, the World Cup, or the biggest fight of all time (it’s always the next one basically!), they’re all great in their own way. The Superbowl is right at the very top of the list.

I’ve asked folks for their prediction for the game and this one just seems to be as close to call as any Superbowl I can recall. It is quite rare to get the top two ranked teams playing the Superbowl which is the case this time. Even the bookies are calling this one incredibly close.

27-24 Patriots

24-7 Patriots

23-19 Seahawks

27-20 Patriots

24-17 Seahawks

23-17 Patriots

17-14 Seahawks

24-10 Patriots

24-16 Patriots

27-9 Seahawks

24-17 Seattle

27-21 Seahawks

27-24 Seahawks

13 picks from a bunch of friends, 7-6 Patriots and 2 picks over 48, 1 on 48 and 10 under 48.

Six weeks ago, I placed a bet on Seattle to win the whole show. I’ve since laid it off. How do I see this game going? When looking at NFL matches, my first thought is to analyse the attacking and defensive strengths and weaknesses of both teams, and how I see them measuring up to each other. And parts of this game are quite logical. Seattle have the best defence of the two (and the league), and the Patriots have the best offense of the two (and the league). When you have elite defence against an elite offense in any sport, I generally edge the elite defence – it’s often easier to destroy than create.

If we look at the other side of it, the Seattle offense against the Patriots defence is an interesting one and where this game could be decided. Seattle’s offense is underrated at times and I love how Wilson can make something from nothing. Lynch is as tough a runner as they come. I do think they have their struggles in terms of receivers despite the Green Bay miracle in the conference game.

The Patriots defence is not as good as the Seahawks, but it is as good as they have had for several years now. They started the season poorly but have gradually improved since Browner came in at week 5, and unlike last year when they lost Aqib Talib in the Conference final, they have a fully fit group of players which is key. This Patriots D can stop the run with their mobile linebackers, and rely on their secondary to stop the Seahawks receivers. Measuring these two up is where I think the Patriots have a greater advantage than the Hawks D v the Pats offense.

Both teams have as strong a home advantage when they play in their own stadiums whether it is the noise in Seattle or the cold in Foxboro – I do not see either team having an advantage in Arizona. The timezone factor is not a major issue here – the Patriots have had sufficiently long enough to acclimatise to it. (That said, there have been some naughty fire alarms going off twice in the middle of the night in the Patriots team hotel this week).

All that mumble jumble to say that I have no clue really who is going to win this one – I slightly edge the Patriots (24-20), but this will come down to small details and moments. I sincerely hope that this game is better than last year’s blowout. I sat in some random bar at silly o’clock in Antwerp watching the game, being thoroughly disappointed for the spectacle, but appreciating a superb performance. I do not see either team hammering the other here so I’m hopeful of that at the very least. I will not be having a cheeky bet on either side for this one, but there is one that I do like. I like the under 48 here. Neither of the teams are particularly strong at creating big plays of 20 yards or more. Special teams are well drilled and I do not see many big plays there. I don’t see that many turnovers by either quarterback or team. I do see both teams managing the clock, Seattle running plenty and Brady throwing plenty of short passes as he has all season, and eating up the clock.

Unders may not sound great for a Super Sunday, but that will not make it a bad game. It may not be the most high scoring or entertaining of games but it will be tense, physical and probably a survival of fittest/bravest. This is going to sound elitist, but there is nothing better in any sport, if there are two individuals or teams competing at the top. Iron sharpens iron as they say, and that’s what makes for a Super Sunday and Super Superbowl.