Jim'll Fix It

Having worked into the betting industry for four and a half years and working on a betting fraud detection project at Uefa for over a year, I have a reasonable amount of experience in the area of betting and corruption within football. I say football, but for football you can read virtually any other sport where there is serious competition and decent amounts of money involved. That may be distressing news to some folks, but it is true. Football is the one which grabs the headlines, but it happens in virtually every sport.

North American sports? Barring steroids, innocent and virtuous I hear you cry. I would put my last penny on some NBA, NHL, MLB games being fixed. Three leagues that play over 80 regular season games per team will have match fixing for sure. The misguided view in North America among many sporting administrators is that because betting on individual matches and match events outside of regulated casinos and sports books (online betting is illegal – try access your Betfair account over there) is prohibited, games cannot be fixed. Unfortunately, and this is the case in Europe also, it is short-sighted and they fail to recognise that the big money is floating around in Asia.

So many sports have been infiltrated. Snooker – there have been so many instances in recent years involving key players where they have either purposely lost matches or frames. The same has happened in tennis. Look at the revelation today regarding cricket and it is not even the final result that has to be fixed. The alleged corruption in that game surrounds three no-balls being balled. Somebody has caught somebody out here, but this happens all the time. When you can bet on suck minor details of a game, it creates opportunities for greater corruption which becomes increasingly impossible to detect. Players involved in such corruption are far more likely to become involved in a fix if it not involving the final outcome of the game – imagine the tennis player serves a double fault in the second set and at 4-2 up – would you be able to tell he did it on purpose? That is another misguided view by administrators looking for purely fixed outcomes rather than specific events.

So, the question is, will the States lift their restrictions on gambling over there any time soon with all the potential further corruption it could bring? I’ll bet that they will purely for the financial benefits it brings the country. The big cash is in Asia, but they can take a slice of the pie too. Cynical to think that way, but my guess is that it will happen sooner or later.

There are some pretty good books on match-fixing and corruption. Andrew Jennings book ‘Foul!’ and Declan Hill’s ‘The Fix’ are quite eye opening and a good start to learn how it works. The one issue they do not deal with is how it can be stopped. Cynical Bobby says it cannot unfortunately. There will always be lowly paid or greedy players who want to make a quick buck, and there will always be people out there throwing temptation their way. It is pretty sad to think that way, but I fear it will continue and even more so with the poor economy right now. It is a bit like the crusade against drugs in sport – unfortunately, the culprits will always be that one step ahead of the administrators.

Boxed In

Every day I read up on my boxing news, and I have to admit to having mixed feelings today when I read about Audley Harrison potentially close to sealing a deal to fight David Haye. It is a big fight in the UK but it is a mis-match and shouldn’t really be happening. This comes off the back of Vitali Klitschko signing up to fight Shannon Briggs last week. There are so many fights out there that would be amazing to watch, but so many politics that are preventing them from happening. The dream fight of Pacman and Floyd is the biggest one out there and the one which everybody would love to see but seems unlikely to be happening in the near future. There are so many like that, and it frustrates me intensely.

Boxing right now is in a really difficult situation and is struggling economically. Not only are fans less likely to shell out big bucks to watch a fight in an arena or on pay-per-view, but television companies are not prepared to throw money at boxing any more. At such a difficult time, you would expect those involved in the sport to be rallying around and trying to spark interest by staging the best possible fights. That is not happening. In fact, quite the reverse. The fact is, that while so many promoters refuse to work with others, and some boxers avoid fighting others, it is completely understandable that folks are losing interest.

Think about it from another perspective and one that has become extremely evident in recent weeks and months. The betting perspective. Look at the last 3-6 months of fights, and see how many shocks or surprises there have been. Not many at all. Try predict the outcome of as many fights as possible in the next six months, and I would put my neck on the line and say that I could successfully predict 95% of the fights that will be made. That is not to say I can make money from it – the bookies are not stupid. But what other sport can expect to retain such an interest when the probability of the favourite winning is something like 95%? This has been the secret of the UFC’s success – evenly matching fighters against each other and putting the best against the best.

Try betting on UFC fights – it is not easy at all. That said, there are far more opportunities to pick good bets than in boxing. It is very rare for a boxing fight to be close to 50/50 in the betting market, even 60/40. Many of the fights in the UFC are. I have to admit to not being a big fan of betting on either of the sports however, and it is rare I do. Individual sports are notoriously tough to bet on – how do I know whether a fighter has a stomach bug coming into a fight? It is one example, but there are many pitfalls on gambling on these two sports and I am not a huge advocate apart from betting for fun.

Anyhow, if the promoters and fighters will not put the fights that everybody wants to see together, then I am going to do it – albeit on my blog that nine people follow.

David Haye v Vitali or Vladimir Klitschko – A number of journalists have identified Tomasz Adamek as a great opponent for Haye and I would love to see it too. That said, there is so much history with the Klitschko’s now, it has to happen with one of them and it is the biggest fights out there at Heavyweight.

Manny Pacquiao v Juan Manuel Marquez – I do not want to see Pacman face Margarito or Cotto again, and if it is not going to be Floyd, the Marquez is the only other fighter in recent times who has come close to beating him. Personally, I thought he won at least one of the fights they had, and there is unfinished business between the two.

Amir Khan v Tim Bradley – I fear that Khan will be paired with some more older and slower fighters like Barrera who he will be able to dominate. I would love to see him line up against Bradley and it would be a really close fight. I like Bradley a lot ever since watching him beat Junior Witter. He takes on all comers and is rock solid without being spectacular. It would be a very close fight and a tough one to call.

Lucian Bute v Carl Froch – This will almost certainly not happen until 2011 or even 2012 as Froch is tied up in the Super Six tournament. However, this fight, in Montreal, would be unmissable and a classic fight in my view. I’ve rambled before about my dream to watch a big fight, UFC or Boxing, in Montreal and this could be the one. Bute is a star in Montreal and I would love to catch him against Froch who would bring a decent amount of English fans over which would really spark the atmosphere as well as being a great fight

Growing Pains

One of the things I look forward to the most, after my early season football enthusiasm has died down, (and trust me, it was shot down in flames on Saturday), is spending time with my niece and nephew. I probably see them on average about once a month, and it is amazing to see the difference in them each month. My niece is four and my nephew is going on seven months. Seeing how they grow physically is amazing. There are obvious signs such as a random tooth emerging in Max’s mouth, or Mia’s hair growing ridiculously long, but just seeing them change is amazing.

More so than the physical side, I love to see how they develop psychologically. Mia never fails to make me laugh with some random comment she comes out with and it always amazes me how she can be so savvy at such an age.

That and a conversation I had last weekend made me wonder what moments and experiences we have as children impact you as an adult. The common view is that children learn at a much faster rate than adults and can absorb more in their memories. I am sure that is related more to alcohol consumption personally, but that too is generally related to age.

When I was a child, there were two main incidents that stand out to me and reflect certain things now. The first one was when I was about four years old at my Auntie Francis’ house. Me and my sister were playing in the car park and as I ran around the side of a car, a pitbull flew around the side and hit me front on and sent me flying. It barked and snarled and little Bobby was flat on his back and petrified. It took a long while until I became comfortable with dogs, and even now when I see my lady so natural with them, I know I am not so at ease with them as others even if I am improving.

The second experience was part of the conversation last weekend. When I was eight years old, we went on a family holiday to Ibiza. Now, this was not clubbing Ibiza, and I was only seven, but maybe I just fancied myself as a lady’s man more at that stage than ever after. We met a lovely family and I took a shine to one of the daughters who was about 15. Anyhow, I never liked sunbathing and I never liked swimming or getting wet much – baths and washing were overrated in those days. So little Bobby used to sit in 25c temperatures by the pool, fully dressed – trainers, jeans, the lot. My dad thought it would be hilarious to pick me up and launch me into the water with my clothes and shoes on. I can still picture to this day being under the water for what felt like an eternity and gasping for the surface. Reality is, it was probably about 5 seconds if that, but for a kid who was not comfortable in water, could not swim and drank half of the pool, it seemed far longer. Add to that, little Bobby’s pride was notably damaged at being humiliated in front of this Kylie Minogue lookalike, it was not a highlight in my career. I can swim now and if you threw me in the middle of the Atlantic or Lake Geneva, I’d sure as hell give it my best shot of staying afloat and moving somewhere. It is far from my comfort zone however. Maybe it made me shy in front of ladies too.

So I always wonder what my niece and nephew take in their young lives that they will remember and what impact it will have on them when they grow up. When I took my nephew to the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley 16 months ago, seeing his enthusiasm and awe during that day will stay with me forever. I enjoyed that as much as my boys beating Man Utd that day….probably knowing that that is a moment he will remember for the rest of his life. Funnily enough, I probably wouldn’t switch those swimming pool and pitbull experiences for a Wembley day now. For sure the Wembley day is pretty darn cool, but I guess they all shape who we are. Ask my sister, the pitbull day is probably one of the best moments of her life, so the pain is probably worth it. I guess it is all about sharing them with folks we care about.

Blackburn v Everton

Blackburn v Everton – 14th August, 2010

Everton Squad: Howard, Mucha, Turner, Neville, Hibbert, Coleman, Jagielka, Distin, Yobo, Heitinga, Baines, Rodwell, Osman, Pienaar, Arteta, Cahill, Bilyaletdinov, Gueye, Fellaini, Saha, Vaughan, Yakubu, Beckford

Absentees: Anichebe (Injury), Joao Silva, Agard, Baxter, Mustafi (Not Selected)



Diniyar Bilyaletdinov, Tim Howard, Steven Pienaar, Phil Jagielka, Jack Rodwell and Seamus Coleman were all away with their countries this week and returned with from international duty with no injuries reported. Howard travelled to New Jersey in the States and Billy played in Russia so those were the two who travelled furthest. Howard starts for sure, Billy perhaps not. Given the travel, his average form in pre-season, I think Moyes goes with Pienaar and Osman down the wings. The relationship with Pienaar seems reasonable still – we will hopefully avoid a repeat of the Lescott situation of last summer where Moyes excluded him.

Tim Cahill has a slight knee issue but he is expected to play. It was a bonus that the Australian coach left him out of their friendly and I would expect him to start this game just behind Louis Saha. Some fans have shown preference to Beckford being given a start but I consider that highly unlikely. Given the opposition also, Saha is the best option here and I am fairly certain he will get the nod.

Fellaini and Heitinga are in the squad despite limited training. I would be surprised to see both of them start this game. If anything, I think Moyes will leave both on the bench and uses Phil Neville as a defensive midfielder or will sit Jack Rodwell in there. With Neville in that position potentially, I think Tony Hibbert plays at right-back. I have wondered in the last few weeks whether we will see Moyes take a punt and go with the impressive Seamus Coleman. If the game was at Goodison, then possibly so but I cannot see that happening today. One minor thing to note, and there may be nothing to it but Neville is listed among the defenders in the squad announced on the website – almost sure to be nothing in that, but it would be no surprise if he starts at RB and Rodwell or Heitinga at CM.

Expected XI

Howard

Hibbert, Jagielka, Distin, Baines

Neville

Osman, Arteta, Cahill, Pienaar

Saha


Prediction

I strongly like the look of Everton here. Against the likes of Blackburn and Bolton, I feel that they suit us well in the sense that we can match them physically, but we have greater quality and technique to make the difference. Blackburn will be highly motivated and ready for this one – I just feel that the Blues will have too much for them. The emphasis all summer has been on making a fast start to the season and they will feel that this is a winnable game for them. The feel-good factor is there from Arteta pledging his future with the club and despite the poor performance and result against Wolfsburg, the spirit is high. This will not be an easy game, but I expect a draw at minimum, and I think they can edge this game.

Is The Grass Really Greener?

There have not been enough random thoughts recently – or certainly not enough that I have put down in writing so I am determined to produce more in the coming weeks – especially before the football season starts.

The best news of my summer, from a sporting perspective, was hearing that Mikel Arteta has signed a new contract at Everton. He had two offers from other clubs – clubs playing in European competitions, who undoubtedly offered more money than was on the table at Everton. For him to sign a new five-year deal with Everton was huge. In recent years we have lost some of our better players to teams with bigger budgets than us – Rooney and Lescott to name two – and who could blame them. Arteta’s deal signals a change in that and it is a key season for the club where there are actually some expectations on them for the first time in a long time.

Arteta’s decision seems increasingly rare in football these days. How many players turn down bigger money (he will be on big money at Everton regardless so he won’t be stacking shelves at Asda when he retires) and European competition to stay loyal to the club where he has made his name? The answer is not many. He would have contemplated what was on offer at the other clubs, and if his press conference after signing is to be believed, he has decided to stay at Everton as he has settled in the area and at the club, and is loved by team-mates and fans alike.

It is so easy to think that the grass is greener - something different, something new, or something else that somebody has is better than what you have. I think it is human nature. I wrote my blog regarding big decisions a few weeks back and I completely stand by that. Big decisions can also mean continuing doing the same, not always resulting in a change. Change is not always good, and recognising that is far from easy. I guess it comes down to an appreciation of what one has and what one knows, and clearly that is something that Arteta considered to be most important and the right thing for him.

It was only last weekend that I had this exact discussion with a good friend of mine. We spoke about Switzerland and if and when we decide to move on. It is easy to complain about the cost of beer, our jobs, the weather, travelling etc, but it is only when we think about the alternatives do we realise we have a pretty good gig going on. For me, the time I realise it most is when I go home to Leeds. That sounds awful and I do not mean it in that way. I love Leeds – the city not FC. It is purely when my friends and family ask what I have been up to, that I realise things are good. It is easy to dream about living in a country where a pint does not cost £5, where customer service and hospitality is excellent, and bureaucracy does not weigh you down. But flipping the coin and thinking of the positives of where you live, work, and friends you have, is just as important in realising that life is good. It is often said that you only realise how good something was when it has gone. I guess the secret is to take Arteta’s advice and recognise and enjoy what you have.

Putting the ‘Con’ in Convenience

Do we actually learn a new thing every day? If daily news counts, then I guess we probably do, otherwise I am not too sure. I certainly do find that I learn plenty when we are on our travels and our last one was no different. Over the last five days, we have spent time in one of the most remote places – Freeport, Nova Scotia – I have ever been (check a map if you don’t believe me), and good old Prince Edward Island. So here is what I learned.

1. Mosquitos exist in Canada. Canadian Mosquitos love me. I would prefer a sharp kick downstairs as opposed to 20+ itchy Mosquito bites.
2. I never knew these existed but they have drive thru ATM machines in North America! Talk about convenience. In reality, they are not quite so convenient. I saw one person lean out of their car, almost falling out to press the buttons. The other issue with it, is that if somebody wants to take a chance and mug somebody taking cash out, they can take the cash, card and car if they do it properly. I will avoid this one I think and not one of the thousands of cool North American features that I would export.
3. Tail winds. I am not referring to the human kind. Flying to Halifax was six hours and ten minutes. Flying back took four hours and fifty minutes. Truly insane just what a difference it can make.
4. On checking in with BA to fly from London to Geneva, they asked that I specifically sit in the window seat and Hannah in the middle – reason? There was a minor travelling alone and they men are not allowed to sit next to them. Not once have I heard that before.
5. I did not so much as learn this but it was more a case of stirring memories of just how good Dairy Queen blizzards are. One of the best, cheekiest, desserts around.
6. Drinking alcohol in a car, as a PASSENGER, is illegal in Canada. I can understand the logic of the driver not being allowed to have a swig while driving, but I have yet to meet anybody who has failed a breath test for inhaling alcoholic fumes coming from somebody else’s bottle.